Two game days before the end of the season, Holstein Kiel only has one counter behind the relegation rank – the longed -for relegation in the Bundesliga is still possible. The remaining program has it all. Last but not least, some data give the KSV courage.
After Marcel Rapp shone his team over the lawn on Wednesday, there was still a little encouragement for the delicate mission by Holstein Kiel. On the edge of the training ground, a loyal fan pressed the trainer and his players themselves made in the hand – lucky charms, who can probably use the “storks” in the middle of the enormous pressure of the tough descent battle.
For the climber, even the climber is even the achievement of a direct non -relegation zone. However, in two games, the Kielers would not only have to catch up on FC St. Pauli in two games, but also at least nine goals in Hoffenheim or even 16.
Relegation Platz 16, which the 1. FC Heidenheim is currently occupied, is more realistic. According to the GSN data, the probability of this is 20 percent, which, on the other hand, for a relegation at 79 percent (with one percent, the data quantifies the chances of direct relegation).
The KSV at the right moment in the flow?
Numbers that coach Marcel Rapp and his team are unlikely to deal with. Especially since important factors are right: the current form and the attitude. “Now we may come to the flow that we had hoped for. Just as we did today and last week, that must be the claim for the last games,” said KSV professional Steven Skrzybski after the recent 3-1 success in Augsburg.
This not only gave the Kielers two Bundesliga victories for the first time, but also points five, six and seven from the past three games. “The breast is getting wider,” said goalkeeper Thomas Dähne: “That gives an extreme thrust for the whole team.” He was “100 %” convinced of creating the relegation. The team is now playing a really good football. That makes me extremely confident that we will stay in the league. “
Mentality and morality are flawless anyway, the KSV clings to the Bundesliga with all his might, whose historical first participation in the season should not remain a mayfly. “We start every game like a final,” said defender Carl Johansson. And Rapp emphasized: “We are always in the Bundesliga.”
Two Champions League aspirant in the end
However, it has the remaining program with two top opponents: Both SC Freiburg (fourth place), against which the Schleswig-Holsteiners compete on Saturday (3:30 p.m., in the NDR LiveCenter), as well as host BVB (five) on the last matchday, they still have the qualification for the Champions League. Kiel’s competitor Heidenheim stands away with Union Berlin (13th) and Werder Bremen (8th) at home in front of paper.
Kiel physically top and offensive extremely efficient
The hope still lives, and some numbers of the data experts encourage. So one of the greatest strengths of the Rapp team is physique and willingness to run. Compared to the entire Bundesliga, Kiel ranks in almost all physical key figures in the top group. The number of sprints per game (246.66) even means league best, the intensive runs (758.31) second place and the 119.57 kilometer mileage.
The defensive strengths also include the ball conquests in your own penalty area (15.22 per game/league best), the ball back in defensive thirds (40.19/second) and the intercepted passes (45.41/second). The 7.66 defensive air -show battles obtained are also a strong value (fourth place).
“We also have something to throw in the balance.”
-KSV coach Marcel Rapp
In other words: Kiel can force ball gains and create counter situations about struggle and running strength. If the “storks” then come to the goal, they are extremely dangerous because efficient: the exploitation of chances of 19% is the third best and significantly higher than the average (12.45%). In this way, the promoted can also exist against strong ball owners such as Freiburg and Dortmund.
Guarantee of success: Dähne, Bernhardsson, Machino
With 75 goals conceded, the KSV is the “shooting booth of the league”, but the number of goals fell in time for the end of the season: recently it was only 1.5 instead of 2.08. This is, among other things, because decisive players increased their performance score on the defensive: Keeper Dähne had a score of 70.05 (previously 57.95), central defender Timo Becker came to 61.70 (57.40).
What is that “Performance score”?
- Goals, passes, fouls, shots or offside positions: The game basis data and further analyzes such as “Expected Goals” or “Action Scores” are put into an overarching context during the “Performance score”-for example.
- In the “performance score”, all players are first set to 0 and are assessed using the pure performance data, combined with data models.
- This value thus provides an assessment of how well or bad a player currently plays.
- The “performance score” is a component of the GSN index, which in turn is a general, long-term evaluation of all skills, potential and qualities of a player.
But two players also protrude offensive: right wing Alexander Bernhardsson has improved significantly in his dribbles and the number of his goal finishes. The result is not only three goals in the youngest three games, but is also a performance score increased to 74.20 (previously 62.75).
Striker Machino (from 59.95 to 75.05) has developed into a decisive offensive factor even more. The Japanese, who was even successful four times in the same period and has already had eleven goals in the season, presents itself as an ice -cold executor. However, he may be out because of an ankle injury. “We have to see if it is enough,” said Rapp.
The starting point speaks for Heidenheim
With all number games it is certain: there remains a highly exciting, barely predictable final sprint for Kiel and Heidenheim, which only separates one point with the same goal difference (-27). A calculation example: If the KSV win 1-0 once and lose 0: 2 once and Heidenheim plays twice at the same time, the Schleswig-Holsteiners would ultimately lack a single goal to stay in the league. And the results of the first half of the season also speak for Heidenheim: The FCH won four points against Union (2: 0) and Werder (3: 2), Kiel against Freiburg (2: 3) and Dortmund (4: 2).
Possible lists:
Holstein Kiel: Dähne – Becker, Johansson, Zec – Rosenboom, Gigovic, Knudsen, Tolkin – Skrzybski – Bernhardsson, Machino
SC Freiburg: Atubolu – Rosenfelder, Ginter, Lienhart, Makengo – M. Eggestein, Osterhage – Doan, Manzambi, Grifo – Adamu
This topic in the program:
The NDR 2 Bundesliga show | 10.05.2025 | 3:00 p.m.
