Calming black clouds and sky-high flames that color the sky dangerously red-orange. Burning Russian oil refineries are no longer rarity. More and more often Ukrainian drone units that affect complexes, in western Russia, but also further inland. The consequences were visible last month: rising fuel prices, rows at gas stations and warnings from Russian drivers. What exactly is going on and how large are the consequences?
In the night from Friday to Saturday it was again hit, at the refinery in Rjazan, where pitch -black weak clouds ended after a Ukrainian drone attack. The Governor of Rjazan, Pavel Malkov, confirmed the attack in somewhat covered terms on his telegram channel and emphasized that no civilian deaths have been fallen. At the same time, he called on citizens in the affected areas to share any images of the damage “who can help the enemy” and urged them to rely on “controlled sources of information.” It didn’t help much: social media soon went full of images of the burning factory.
No matter how Russian drivers do their best to minimize the effect of the attacks, the impact is difficult to ignore. Since the beginning of August, Ukraine has carried out ten large -scale attacks on the Russian oil network, confirmed Research of the BBC. Ukrainian and Russian media reported seven other attacks, but FactCheckers found no visual evidence for that. The refinery in Rjazan, owned by state oil company Rosneft, is one of the five largest in Russia, in addition to locations of Lukoil, Gazprom Neft and the Siberian Soergoetneftegaz. She has been the target before, but this time repairing will take longer than previous times. The Russian economist and energy expert Vladislav Inozemtsev thinks that it can be “at least two weeks” before production can be resumed, and “about three to four months to reach 90 percent of the full capacity again”.
The Lukoil refinery in Wolgograd, which was the target in mid-August, may be disrupted for one to two months. Installations were also hit in Krasnodar and Samara. It is estimated that at the end of last month around 17 percent of Russian oil refining – good for around 1.1 million barrels per day – was eliminated for shorter or longer periods.
The fact that the drone attacks seem to have more effect this summer than before, also noted the Russian energy specialist Sergej Vakoelko at the end of August An analysis For think tank Carnegie Center. “Ukraine now clearly has more drones, and can send them out in swarms to overwhelm the Russian air defense.” In addition, the analyst writes, the drones have better navigation and can disrupt Russian repair work with repeated attacks. On the other hand: not all attacks have impact. Some refineries do not produce much, others only have limited damage. Still others serve the export market so that the Russians themselves do not notice much of it, and in some cases can change transport routes to limit the effect. The important Droezjba pipeline, which serves Belarus, Slovakia and Hungary, was repaired in two days after an attack in August.
Record prices
The petrol prices peaked in the Far East of Russia, in the southwest and on the annexed Crimea, where Ukrainian attacks disrupted oil supply through pipelines last month. In the meantime, there is gas on the pumps on Crimea, albeit that it costs almost 70 rubles per liter, more than 70 cents. “We didn’t see such a price increase in a hundred years,” said an anonymous regimecritic at the end of August the local department from news site Radio Free Europe. In mid -August, the price of gasoline reached a record high in some places of more than 80 rubles per liter (more than 80 cents). In the meantime that is tight 60 rubles. Russian media write on the basis of figures from Statistics Agency Rosstat that prices have risen by 6 percent in the past year.
The problems were the largest in regions with few large refineries last month, according to the BBC. In various places, motorists were forced to switch to the more expensive A-92 from the regular gasoline A-92 in various places. In the Primorski Krai region in the Far East, motorists stood in line for a long time. “We drove to the sea with the family and had to wait almost an hour to refuel,” said A resident of Vladivostok against Novaja Gazeta. The authorities know the waiting times for a peak in the tourist season. On the island of Sachalin, near Japan, the sale of A-92 was rated to ten liters per person. Further regional price increases are not excluded. Last weekend reported The Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda Problems in Moscow and Saratov, where A-95 was not available at some gas stations. The authorities advised residents to check in advance whether refueling is possible.
Agriculture and Tourism
The Ukrainian sabotage actions are more frequent than in previous months, and they are effective because they come on top of a series of more systematic problems on the Russian domestic market. Summer is traditionally the time for maintenance work, in August the harvest begins, for which agriculture uses a lot of fuel, and the tourist season also drives the demand for gasoline. According to experts, failure of the important refineries in Rjazan and Wolgograd makes the crisis more tangible than in other years, certainly in the densely populated southwest of Russia with its agricultural areas and many tourist destinations.
Oil has enough in itself. Last year it pumped up 516 million tonnes, slightly less than before, but enough for a place in the top five of production countries. The 34 large Russian refineries edit around 270 million tonnes of oil every year, into products such as fuel oil, diesel and gasoline. In 2024, the domestic sales amounted to 240 million tonnes of raw and 112 million edited oil. A little less than half of the processed oil goes abroad. However, the government stopped this earlier this year; For gasoline, an export ban applies until the end of September. The Russian news agency Ria Novosti reported a few days ago that this may be extended until October to meet the domestic demand.
The government compensates for Russian oil companies for their loss of income on the less lucrative domestic market. According to the Interfax news agency they received Converted 800 million euros in ‘damper payments’ in August, and more than 600 million euros in July. The government would like to get rid of the expensive scheme.
Despite alarming reports in international media, the experts do not want to speak of a serious fuel crisis. “There is still a long way to go before transport, agriculture, industry and, more importantly, see the army, a real fuel shortage,” writes energy expert Vakoelko. Russia pumps more crude oil than is necessary for domestic demand, and the production of diesel is not experiencing problems. “Even if the damaged refineries were no longer functioning at all, the deficit could still be limited and could be compensated with import from Belarus.”
According to his colleague Inozemtsev, that does not alter the fact that the drone attacks are currently the “most effective means” that Ukraine has to hit Russia.
Loss of face
Is Putin worried about loss of face in the West? Inozemsev doubts that. “I think he doesn’t really care what the West thinks of him. At least he certainly does not feel driven.”
Drones touch an oil refinery in Samara, Russia.
Photo Eyepress/Reuters
What makes Putin more worries, the economist thinks is the question of whether the West led by Trump is setting sanctions against countries such as China, Turkey and India, which import Russian oil. The question is whether the Russian economy will ‘collapse’, as the American Minister of Finance Scott Bessent said this week is the question. The leaders of Russia, China and India met at the end of August during a top in Tijanin and do not seem to be playing apart. “It would be no surprise if Moscow gives new discounts [op olie en gas] To ensure more trade with India and China ”, said The American economist Mandar Oak against the BBC last week.
A Anti -Western course is doing well with the public in Russia, China and India. In addition, the Russian president is not bound by ‘difficult’ issues such as democratic processes or public opinion, with which Western leaders are confronted. As far as Inozemtsev is concerned, they are therefore in a more difficult parquet. “Trump will have to fulfill his promises in the left or clockwise, and European governments must always look for means to continue to support Ukraine. But Putin can continue the war or stop when there are favorable conditions for Russia. He has freedom of movement, and therefore he feels fine.”