Between record and risk: Why Tesla shares are facing a test with the Q3 balance sheet

• Tesla breaks delivery record
• Tesla shares: Between pressure and hope
• This is what experts expect for the Q3 report

Tesla with delivery record

Tesla delivered more vehicles in the third quarter of 2025 than ever before. The electric car manufacturer reported 497,000 electric vehicles delivered, an increase of around 29 percent compared to the previous quarter, significantly exceeding the expectations of analysts who had expected a decline. Production in Q3 was 447,000 vehicles, of which over 435,000 were Models 3 and Y. Tesla also achieved a new record in the area of ​​energy storage products with 12.5 gigawatt hours.

The main driver of the surprisingly strong quarter was the final spurt in US subsidies: many buyers took the opportunity to buy an electric car before the $7,500 tax credit expired at the end of September. This temporarily returned momentum to Tesla’s core business. However, analysts warn that the pull-forward effects could weigh on sales in the current quarter.

Tesla shares in difficult times

However, Tesla has hardly been able to convince so far this year. In the second quarter, Tesla sales shrank by a whopping 13.5 percent, after falling by 13 percent in the first quarter.

The electric car pioneer has been struggling for some time with growing competition and political headwinds from the CEO Elon Musk. Already in the first half of 2025, sales suffered from production changes to the Model Y and from the public polarization of the Tesla boss. Development also remained weak in the second quarter – despite stable production and price adjustments.

In the USA, Tesla was also increasingly losing market share to manufacturers with hybrid models and classic combustion engines. However, the situation has so far been particularly critical in Europe: According to the industry association ACEA, new registrations fell by 36.6 percent in August and by over 40 percent in July. Tesla’s market share in the EU fell to 1.2 percent.

Financially, the weakness is also reflected in the numbers: For the quarter ended June 30, 2025, Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.33, after $0.42 in the previous year. Sales fell by around 12 percent to $22.5 billion. Although the company largely met analysts’ expectations, the downward trend shows: Tesla’s once unassailable market leadership Electric car-Segment is crumbling.

CEO Elon Musk has been calm in the recent past – he emphasized again that the company’s future does not only lie in vehicle sales, but above all in robotaxis and humanoid robots. However, Tesla is still at the beginning in both future areas and is facing growing competition

There is no precise consensus among analysts regarding Tesla. Barclays analyst Dan Levy, for example, recently described Tesla as an “OG meme stock” and drew a comparison with Bitcoin: The price is driven more by the hype and enthusiasm of private investors than by fundamental data. According to Levy, Tesla’s valuation can hardly be explained by traditional key figures.

At the same time, however, bullish voices also made their way through. Former Tesla critic Dan Nathan from CNBC is now talking about positive technical momentum – for example holding the 200-day average. Investors like the Baron Focused Growth Fund also point to progress in the robotaxi business and more stable investor sentiment since Elon Musk focused more on Tesla.

This is what experts expect for Q3

Tesla will report its third-quarter results on October 22nd – and analysts’ expectations are mixed. According to the consensus, 26 analysts on average expect earnings per share of $0.52, which corresponds to a decline of around 16 percent compared to the previous year. In terms of sales, 27 analysts expect an increase of 2.4 percent to around 25.8 billion US dollars. For the full year 2025, however, a slight decline in sales and profits is forecast – analysts are expecting sales of 93.6 billion US dollars and a profit of 1.75 US dollars per share (previous year: 97.7 billion USD / 2.04 USD per share).

The experts currently see Tesla at a crucial turning point, as Capital explains: The end of US subsidies for electric cars, rising costs and increasing competition – especially from Chinese manufacturers like BYD and established brands like VW – could slow down growth. Analysts therefore expect Tesla to provide information in its forecast as to how the company plans to stabilize its margins and secure demand after the purchase incentives are removed.

Even though the mood among investors has recently improved – the share price has doubled within a year – the valuation remains ambitious. With a price-earnings ratio of over 200, there is little room for disappointment.

The focus of the Q3 report is therefore likely to be on Tesla’s growth drivers of the future: robotaxis, battery capacities, AI integration and advances in autonomous driving. If there is no concrete progress here, the highly valued Tesla shares could quickly come under pressure again.

And the valuations of Tesla shares also reflect the wait-and-see attitude of analysts. Via TipRanks, a total of 39 expert reviews result in a hold recommendation (16x buy, 13x hold, 10x sell). The average price target of $365.82 is 18.24 percent below the last price of $447.43 (as of October 20, 2025).

Editorial team finanzen.net

This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.

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