Arnaldi-Musetti prediction odds analysis first round Australian Open

Matteo Arnaldi against Lorenzo Musetti: the Australian Open draw is merciless, pitting two Italian tennis players who are also great friends off the court in the first round. For one of the two, the journey to the first Slam of the season will be interrupted immediately: let’s find out the prediction and odds for the Arnaldi-Musetti match scheduled for the night between Monday and Tuesday 14 January at 4am.

ARNALDI-MUSETTI ODDS PREDICTION

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Matteo and Lorenzo were among the great protagonists of the successes of the Italian national team in the Davis Cup in the last two editions, especially in the phases in which Sinner was not present. They faced each other twice at ATP level and on both occasions Musetti won: in 2023 the Tuscan beat his rival at the Internazionali di Roma and at Bastad, again on red clay. There is also a challenge from 2019 in the Barletta Challenger and in that case too the Tuscan won, who is looking for the hat trick in Melbourne, on hard court. The challenge appears very balanced: the Over games 35.5 can be considered possible which is offered at odds of 1.57 by Sisal, 1.54 by Better Lottomatica and Goldbet and at 1.52 by Gazzabet.

A LOW PACE DEPARTURE

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The Melbourne Slam is the second tournament of 2025 for both Italian tennis players. Musetti, seeded number 16, lost in Hong Kong against the Spaniard Munar after easily beating Diallo; Arnaldi fell in Brisbane after a great match against Popyrin, who was also beaten in a charity exhibition a few days later by Jannik Sinner. The Ligurian tennis player, however, then lost in the following round against Opelka. Whoever passes the round between Arnaldi and Musetti will face the winner of the challenge between Davidovich Fokina and Shapovalov. Obviously the ranking says that the favorite is Lorenzo Musetti: Arnaldi, in fact, is at number 39 in the ATP rankings, but there is always a great balance between the two. The result may also depend on the conditions of the day: we can hypothesize the success of the more experienced Musetti in the first set, an opportunity worth odds of 1.68 on Gazzabet, 1.66 on Goldbet and Better Lottomatica, 1.60 on Sisal.