According to the half -yearly Threat Of the National Coordinator for the fight against terrorism and safety (NCTV), the threat level in the Netherlands Level 4 remains on a scale of 5. That means that there is still a “real chance” that an attack will take place in the Netherlands.
The NCTV sees the greatest dangers in the online radicalization of young people, both in jihadist and right-wing extremist networks. The coordinator is concerned about ‘the speed with which teenagers and young adults […] Radicalize online ”. In addition, there is an increasing threat from Russia.
In January 2024 the threat level was increased from 3 to 4, mainly due to the tensions due to the war in Gaza and Koran burns occurring at the time. The threat image has since remained at that level.
Online jihadism
Online jihadist networks the NCTV calls “the greatest terrorist threat for Europe.” The coordinator sees that attacks in Europe ‘mainly [zijn] Focused on Jewish or Israeli targets or on persons accused of the desecration of Islam “. Where the threat of physical networks does decrease, there is a” new generation of jihadists who are part of online groups, “writes NCTV. Within those groups, people can “get in touch with like -minded people.” For terrorism on online platforms, previous threat images were also warned.
Online propaganda could also inspire a act of violence in the Netherlands, the threat image outlines. Moreover, attacks with a ‘simple design’, such as driving on crowds, could have a ‘copycat effect’ and can also be copied by extremists with another ideological motive.
Radicalizing young people
The NCTV points to, among other things, an increasing number of minors arrested in the Netherlands in connection with terrorism. At the end of April, for example, “fourteen, especially minor, people were arrested in connection with incitement to terrorism on social media” – they would have tried, among other things, on the video platform Tiktok to send others terrorist crimes.
The NCTV also sees a “fast online radicalization of young people in right-backed online networks”. Just as with young people who are sensitive to jihadism, it is “often about young people looking for their identity and want to give meaning to their lives, often combined with psychiatric or psychosocial problems.”
Young people can quickly radicalize in online groups, “because extremist language is encouraged and liked.” Because young people only come together “sporadically”, the coordinator has little insight into the size of that type of network. Yet here too, the image also estimates a “real chance” that individuals eventually proceed to terrorist violence.
Sovereigns and Russians
A few anti-institutional people, such as self-proclaimed sovereigns, also turns out a threat of violence. Last week the police arrested eight ‘sovereigns’ on suspicion of possession of weapons and hazardous substances.
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From dozens of Dutch ‘IS exiters’, who are still stuck in Kampen in Syria, a threat is potentially when they are released, says NCTV.
There is also “military threat, espionage, physical and digital sabotage and undermining influence” from Russia. The NCTV speaks of “interactions between the Russian government or related persons and Western anti-institutional and right-wing extremists”. Although the threat from Russia increases, the impact of these interactions on the terrorist threat in the Netherlands is currently limited.