‘Springing violence in Syria is very problematic for the new regime and only makes the country more unstable’

In recent days, parts of Syria were the scene of fighting between supporters and security forces of the current government to supporters of the driven leader Bashar al-Assad. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a NGO established in the United Kingdom with sources in Syria, hundreds of civilians have fallen. Precise numbers are missing.

According to Syria expert Mohammad Kanfash, connected as a researcher at Utrecht University, there was “two types of violence. The first is the military confrontation between the state and the remains of the Assad regime, a second category belongs to the violence between different communities, with Alawitic citizens [Assad is ook een alawiet] are killed out of revenge. ”

The violence started with a coordinated attack by supporters of the former regime in the coastal region on safety forces and urban infrastructure, such as hospitals. “This made a lot of time in the country,” says Kanfash. “Not only did the government sent troops to the coast to reinforce the attacks, citizens – or groups that are not affiliated with the state – also grabbed the weapons. After thirteen years of civil war, they are well available. And this leads to violence against citizens. “

According to Kanfash, the Syrian Ministry of the Interior admitted that government forces were also guilty of violations against citizens. “Since then, two groups of fighters have been affiliated with the new regime since then and the government has promised to investigate.”

Does the new Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa have his troops in control?

“Although there is talk of a Syrian Ministry of Defense, it is actually still a ministry in the making. It was only recently established and it includes various battle groups that have emerged from the civil war. So it’s not just about the fighters of the well-disciplined rebel group HTS, with which Al-Sharaa started the offensive against Assad in December. Some militias that are now part of the state army have a very problematic past, such as the Syrian National Army, from the north of the country. “

What does the new government do against sectarian violence?

“The coastal region is closed from the rest of the country to prevent more armed groups from traveling to the region on their own. Extra safety forces are also stationed in, for example, Homs where many alawites live, to prevent the expansion of sectarian violence.

Heavily armed security forces of the current regime in Syria on their way to Latakia, where there is a fight with fighters who are loyal to the driven leader Assad.

“The violence is very problematic for the new regime. Further animosity between the population groups only makes the country more unstable. In addition, the confidence that other countries have in Al-Sharaa and it scares the possible investors who are needed to rebuild the country. ”

Is the violence the start of a large -scale rebellion against the new government?

“My estimate is not. With the fall of the Assad regime, his allies did not get the chance to secure many resources and manpower. They no longer have the social reach or coordinating capacity to maintain an extensive uprising for a long time.

“I do expect that there will be sporadic outbursts of violence. Although Al-Sharaa has promised Amnesty to supporters of the old regime that had no high rank and were not involved in killings, thousands of people who are not in favor of this regime remain. And so the dissatisfaction is not gone quickly.

‘If the economy does not start working quickly and more jobs are added, I fear that I see more violence’

“In addition, the poor condition of the local economy makes it a lot easier for supporters of the Assad regime to recruit fighters in the coastal region. Many people who were paid by Assad are now without income. If Hezbollah, the Iranians or Israel – all want to undermine opponents of the new regime – Damascus, it can be done by recruiting thousands of desperate people with a little money. People who already distrust the new regime.

“If the economy does not start working quickly and no more jobs are added, I fear that I see more violence. For this, the paralyzing sanctions of the West against Syria must be closed as quickly as possible. “

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