For decades, parties of Centrode right in Europe They remained firm in their rejection of the extreme right. Mechanisms like him Cordon Sanitaire In France or the Brandmauer In Germany they avoided cooperation with radical forces. However, in recent years, this red line has blurred.
Before the electoral advance of the ultra -rightist matchestraditional conservatives have opted for a mimicry strategy, assuming increasingly restrictive speeches and policies on issues such as immigration. But this strategy has not only failed to recover votes, but has accelerated the consolidation of the extreme right as the main force in the conservative spectrum.
The most recent example of this dynamic was given in Germany, where the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merzhe played with the ultra -right to approve a parliamentary motion against immigration. The reaction was immediate: internal rejection in its own party and an open celebration by Alternative for Germany (AFD)which considered it a “historical day.”
In France, the discourse of the centrist prime minister François Bayrou On the capture of the country for Arab immigration, it was interpreted by ultra -right as an ideological victory. And in Austria, the Popular Party (ÖVP) maintains advanced negotiations with the ultra -rightist FPö to form the first extreme right government since World War II.
The employer repeats: traditional right -wing parties try to compete with the ultra -right in their own land, hardening their speech to stop the leakage of votes. However, instead of recovering their electorate, they end up legitimizing and normalizing their radical rivals.
As Tarik Abou-Chadi, Professor of European Policy at Oxford, explains, Tarik Abou-Chadi, “When traditional parties adopt ultra -right positions, people stop seeing the latter as an extremist option and begins to consider them a valid alternative”. This process also changes the perception of public opinion: the more the traditional right insists on issues such as immigration, the more crisis sensation grows and the greater the acceptance of more radical proposals.
The result is evident in several districts. In the Netherlands, the Freedom of Freedom Party Geert Wilders He has surpassed the Government to the traditional right and leads. In Italy, the brothers of Italy of Giorgia Meloni They dominate the right block. In Austria, the FPö displaced the center -right in the last elections. In France, Marine Le Pen National Group is the biggest party in Parliament, while in Sweden, Finland and Croatia, the extreme right is already part of government coalitions.
The United Kingdom also reflects this trend. The reform formation UK of Nigel Farage He has surpassed conservatives in some recent surveys, despite the fact that the conservative party has hardened its immigration position with measures such as the controversial deportation of asylum applicants to Rwanda. The British case confirms the paradox: the radicalization of the traditional right does not stop the rise of ultra -right, but enhances it.
Sarah de Lange, professor of political pluralism at the University of Amsterdam, warns that “The extreme right parties advance in waves, and now we are in a moment of acceleration”. The fragmentation of the left and the weakening of traditional parties facilitate their ascent. According to ABOU “In some countries it has already happened; in others, the process is underway. We talk about the extreme right as if it were marginal, but it is no longer true.”
The dilemma for traditional parties is evident. Or reconstruct an independent and differentiated center -right space, or continue with their current strategy and They become diluted versions of the extreme right, the dilemma that today divides the pro of Mauricio Macri, and of which Javier Milei is used, with the strategy developed by his sister Karina and Santiago Caputo.
Recent history shows that, in politics, Voters usually prefer the original to the copy. If the traditional right does not find a way to break this vicious circle, its disappearance could only be a matter of time. A threat that in Argentina could be specified in the next legislative elections.
In addition, another factor that favors this turn to the extreme right is the Impact of economic and social crises. The discontent with globalization, the increase in the cost of living and the perception of insecurity have been capitalized by the ultra -right -wing parties, which offer simplified responses and sharp solutions. In this context, Traditional right -wing parties, instead of proposing viable alternatives from a moderate perspective, have chosen to replicate the rhetoric of fear.
To this is added the leadership crisis within the right center. With historical figures such as Angela Merkel out of the stageconservative parties have lacked leaders capable of marking their own agenda. Instead, they have been trapped in the logic of responding to the extreme right, allowing this public debate (this is also local policy, where Milei’s antiwake speech has redefined the public debate)
This leadership vacuum has facilitated the erosion of the traditional principles of conservatism and has accelerated its dissolution within the ultra -right discourse. If the current trend is maintained, Europe could see in the next decade a radical transformation of its political map. The question is if still, the traditional parties are in time to reverse this process or if the vicious circle is already irreversible.
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