After more than two years of tug-of-war, Lebanon finally has a new president. In a vote in parliament, the thirteenth in total, army chief Joseph Aoun (60) became army chief this Thursday appointed as the new head of state. He will have to work with other groups to help the very divided country, which has not yet recovered from the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah and has been struggling with a deep economic crisis for some time, to get back on its feet. In his speech of thanks to parliament, Aoun spoke of “a new era” and “the moment of truth”.
The election was considered in advance to be an important indicator of the eroding power position of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia that had grown into the most powerful player in Lebanese politics in recent decades. However, Hezbollah suffered heavy blows, especially last fall, due to heavy Israeli air strikes and an incursion by Israeli ground troops in southern Lebanon. Israel justified its offensive with a reference to the shelling that Hezbollah has carried out on targets in northern Israel since October 2023 in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Previously, Hezbollah had expressed a preference for a candidate other than Aoun and blocked alternatives. But partly under American and Saudi pressure they backed down. According to analysts, Hezbollah realized that they had better accept Aoun because the new American President Donald Trump might otherwise try to force an even less agreeable candidate down their throats after taking office on January 20. Saudi Arabia also supported Aoun. Nor could Hezbollah afford to antagonize the Saudis because they are indispensable for financing the reconstruction of southern Lebanon. Most of the war damage was caused in that area, still controlled by Hezbollah.
Ethnically strongly divided
In ethnically and religiously divided Lebanon, the presidency has traditionally been held by a Christian, often a Christian army commander. The Prime Minister, on the other hand, is a Sunni Muslim, while the Speaker of Parliament is a Shia.
Aoun, no relation to previous President Michel Aoun, had headed the Lebanese army since 2017. Militarily, this had been inferior to Hezbollah for years, which, thanks to Iranian support, had an impressive missile arsenal. Aoun, who has been part of the armed forces since 1983, also wisely kept his army out of the fierce battle between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months.
However, since the end of November, a ceasefire has been in force between Israel and the troubled Hezbollah. After American mediation, the parties agreed that Israel will evacuate the south of Lebanon, but also that Hezbollah will no longer be allowed to be located south of the Litani River. The Lebanese army must monitor this in cooperation with the UN force Unifil. For Aoun, the latter in particular will be a trial by fire.
Strictly speaking, Hezbollah and the Lebanese government even committed themselves at the end of November to disarm all militias, including Hezbollah, on the basis of an old UN Security Council resolution. During his speech to parliament, Aoun promised to work hard on a monopoly on violence for the state.
Although Aoun generally kept a low profile, he strongly criticized the country’s political leadership in 2021
The president must also try to turn the economic tide in Lebanon. There has been a deep crisis for six years, leaving many Lebanese barely able to make ends meet. Power is often only available for a few hours per day. Widespread corruption is also to blame for the country’s economic problems. Although Aoun usually kept a low profile, he spoke out in 2021 strong criticism on the country’s political leadership. He pointed out that soldiers also sometimes suffered from hunger due to the crisis. “What are you planning to do?” he then asked the political leadership.
Another factor that could affect Aoun and his country is the fall of the oppressive regime of Syrian President Assad, until recently also an ally of Hezbollah. Tiny Lebanon now hosts more than a million Syrian refugees. Only a fraction of them have now returned to Syria, while many Assad loyalists have fled to Lebanon in recent weeks.
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