Bitcoin has continued its upward movement since the beginning of the year. If history repeats itself, it could even reach a new all-time high by around mid-January, one crypto analyst believes.
• Bitcoin recovers after a period of weakness
• Crypto analyst believes new record high is possible soon
• Forecast based on data from the last three cycles
After its record high of $108,464 on December 17, Bitcoin entered a period of weakness and fell back to almost $91,000 in the final days of December. The US Federal Reserve was responsible for this, signaling that it would make fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than market participants had previously expected. But in the new year, the oldest and best-known cryptocurrency recovered and once again exceeded the $100,000 mark.
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“Investors on both sides of the Atlantic continue to warm up to the official inauguration of Donald Trump and thus to a crypto-friendly Washington,” said analyst Timo Emden from Emden Research, commenting on the recent recovery. During his election campaign, Donald Trump ensnared the crypto community. The 78-year-old declared that he would be the “pro-Bitcoin president” that America needed and promised to leave the crypto market largely unregulated and also to provide cheap electricity for Bitcoin mining. The Republican also announced that he would keep all Bitcoin that the US government currently owns or acquires in the future. This will serve as the core of a “strategic national Bitcoin inventory.”
New Bitcoin record in sight?
By around mid-January, Bitcoin could even reach a new all-time high, wrote “MarketWatch”, citing the crypto research company K33. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, pointed out that in the past three cycles, the average duration between the first and last Bitcoin record high was 318 days. Since the original cryptocurrency reached its first record high in this cycle on March 5th, it could therefore mark a new, final high in this cycle on January 17th, 2025 if the average duration of previous cycles repeats itself. Crypto analysts often divide Bitcoin’s price performance into four-year cycles, each of which goes through four phases, including breakout, hype, correction and accumulation.
Lunde also pointed to Donald Trump as the driving force behind the Bitcoin rally: “Trump’s election was the catalyst behind the strong rally in the fourth quarter, and the inauguration [für den 20. Januar geplant, Anmerkung der Redaktion] would be a natural conclusion to the dynamic, considering that political processes likely take time to materialize,” a note from Lunde is quoted as saying.
Considerable potential
Lunde still sees a lot of room for improvement in Bitcoin. Using estimates based on previous cycle peak prices, he sees a rise to $146,000 possible this cycle. Using previous market capitalization as a reference, Lunde believes Bitcoin could even reach a high of $212,500.
Skepticism is appropriate
However, the crypto analyst himself notes that these forecasts should be viewed with caution. On the one hand, Lunde points out that the cryptocurrency is still relatively young and the limited historical price data may therefore not be meaningful enough.
On the other hand, past performance is not always an indicator of future performance. As Lunde explained, Bitcoin’s cyclical effects are becoming less pronounced as the impact of the halving diminishes.
Editorial team finanzen.net