The first times of the tests, on the same Sakhir track where the World Championship starts, thrilled the Cavallino fans. Those who look at the recent past preach prudence: however, those who started well did not always end up great
– Milan
Luckily the wait is (almost) over, and the choice to move the first race to Saturday also shortens the agony by a day. The tests in Bahrain were an appetizer of what we will see from Thursday on the same track and the main courses look mouth watering. Because if it is true that Red Bull showed itself to be the usual spaceship, it is clear how Ferrari reduced the gap. How much? It’s everyone’s dilemma: there are those who think there is still an unbridgeable gap around one second per lap, others say that the champions have “only” two-three tenths of an advantage. A trifle. In between there are all the possible shades of gray and this is why for days we have been talking about race pace, tyres, kg of petrol and how much the teams squeezed the engine in the tests. But while waiting for qualifying and the Sakhir race to pronounce the first sentences, it may be useful to remember that winter verdicts are not always destined to be confirmed on the track.
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The most recent and least encouraging case is that of 2023. Three days of collective testing were enough to understand that Red Bull would be the car to beat, but also to understand Ferrari’s difficulties: many will remember the heated discussion in the pits (live tv) between a frowning Charles Leclerc and the aerodynamic chief David Sanchez, who would later resign and leave Maranello. Not only that: even though Alonso had only finished 9th, observing the Spaniard’s pace in the race simulation it was clear to everyone the extent of Aston Martin’s surprise. Who, in fact, would have achieved the podium in the GP behind Verstappen and Perez. Likewise, Mercedes seemed to have made progress compared to the disastrous previous year, while McLaren had started the year on an uphill climb by completing few laps. Clues that turned into concrete evidence throughout the first half of the season, at least until the orange cars of Norris and Piastri made a big leap forward thanks to the technical updates brought to the track. If last year’s tests were reliable, the same cannot be said of 2022. While Mercedes revealed a revolutionary design of the sides and bonnet, showing the first creaks of an all-uphill World Championship, Verstappen set the fastest laps. However, the one who had impressed the most was Ferrari, not surprisingly a great protagonist with pole positions and victories in the following weeks. An illusory trend, which lasted only a few races: already from the fourth stage, in Imola, Red Bull changed gear. And Super Max, after recovering the deficit from Leclerc, took off. Update after update, the genius Adrian Newey has laid the foundations of a domination (10 victories in the last 11 GPs) that is impossible to predict when analyzing the three pre-season days in Bahrain.
battle
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Even more emblematic of how much tests can sometimes deceive is the example of 2021, in some ways a season with similar conditions to the one that is about to begin: then as today, the regulation was blocked with very few technical changes allowed compared to the year Before. Furthermore, Mercedes was coming from a period of almost unchallenged dominance and the table seemed set for yet another binge. Perhaps it is also for this reason, or for the traditional tendency to hide during tests, that few had given weight to the apparent difficulties of the Silver Arrows in the three days of Bahrain. Certainly no one expected that Verstappen, despite setting the absolute best time in the tests, would question the supremacy of the world champions on the eve of an epochal revolution in the regulations. And even if in the end Hamilton won three of the first four races, everyone remembers the overtaking of Red Bull in the central phase of the season and the subsequent counter-overtaking by Mercedes in the final stages. Nothing that three days of testing could suggest.
crucial developments
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Looking into the future by interpreting the winter tests, in short, is not an easy exercise. And if it is true that sometimes you get with a small margin of error, making predictions wrong is easier than it seems. For this reason it is more logical to wait for the first results and, above all, the first technical developments of the cars, which can also upset the values at the top. Assuming that the gaps are not similar to those that Max inflicted last season…
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