Beyond the opinion of the polls, Spain closes this Sunday the political era that opened almost a decade ago, in 2014, with the emergence of Podemos, Ciudadanos and the pro-independence ‘procés’. The purple ones have changed their face, the orange ones are preparing to lower the blind and sovereignism hibernates waiting to find a way out of the maze. Seats and majorities aside, the result of the general elections it will be a return to imperfect bipartisanship made up of two major parties and two essential crutches, but perhaps not enough, to prop up governments. Two new pairings that, due to the characteristics of some partners, will put the political stability of the next few years.
The massive vote by mail and the gradual drop in the percentage of undecideds point to a high participation in these summer elections. The weight of the so-called ‘useful vote’ for PSOE and PP compared to their natural partners, especially in the fifteen provinces that distribute fewer seats, may be crucial for the winner’s chances of governing. Alberto Núñez Feijóo has been having an uphill Campaign that began from strength to strength after his televised duel with Pedro Sánchez, who has taken a breath with his rival’s missteps but without showing solid signs of a comeback. Yolanda Díaz and Santiago Abascal have waged their particular battle for the bronze medal, which can be decided by a handful of votes in those smaller constituencies.
Polls and predictions draw a wide difference from between 20 and 30 seats in favor of the PP, but the advantage in votes is reduced to between 3 and 5 points. What can happen? Broadly speaking, and with the margins of error typical of demoscopy, three main scenarios can be outlined:
Absolute majority (or almost) of the PP
No poll has predicted that Feijóo will reach an absolute majority on his own. Some have placed the PP above the 150 seats and the party itself has raised its expectations to more than 160. The ‘Andalusia effect’, where Juanma Moreno obtained an absolute majority that nobody saw coming, is complicated but cannot be completely ruled out. The fear of the extreme right reaching or influencing the Government of Spain may benefit the popular candidate, who to the traditional bastions of Madrid and Galicia now add the of Andalusia and can be propelled even thanks to Catalonia. In fact, Vox has gone from more to less in this campaign and, after his regional pacts with the PP, all the polls have placed Abascal well below the current 52 seats. If he does not reach 176 deputies, Feijóo’s dream is to be able to avoid Vox by leaning on the hinges: GNP, Canarian Coalition, UPN, teruel exists.. With some it shares regional governments, but it may fall too short because 23-J points to a general withdrawal of the vote for nationalist and regionalist minorities, four years after achieving its record.
Related news
According to the demoscopia, the most likely scenario is a comfortable victory for Feijóo and that the sum with Abascal moves on the edge of an absolute majority. The average of surveys gave PP and Vox 177 seatswhile the predictions left them at 174. In this hypothesis, the key from Monday will be whether the popular will immediately knock on the door of the ultras, as they did in the Valencian Community, or they will try to squeeze the pressure on the PSOE to repeat the play of 2016: drop Sánchez and pave the way for Feijóo’s investiture. The theory of the PP in order not to put Vox in the Government involves overcoming the 160 deputies or, in any case, get more than Sánchez and Díaz together. But if Abascal falls below 50 seats, accessing the Government may be his only hold on power because he will have even lost his ability to block laws through unconstitutionality appeals. And if he has to swallow with Vox because his majority is too precarious, Feijóo can choke on the equation of the third partner. The shadow of the lock is long.
Undaunted, the CIS He has resisted in his efforts to win Sánchez. The reality is that it would be a colossal surprise, but it is true that the difference in votes has narrowed as the campaign progresses. After the municipal ones, socialism can only take for granted a good result in Catalonia and trust that Add scratch those last key seats in several provinces. A different case is what the current president of the Government would do if he loses the elections but PP and Vox do not reach 176. Is it realistic to launch into articulating a multi-party majority with the bait of the cordon sanitaire to the far right? There are precedents, because this is how he has governed these last four years … and he has managed to exhaust the legislature despite the continuing turmoil. For not remembering the resilience of the PSOE leader. The problem may be that that hook of the scarecrow to Vox be enough to attract formations whose vote may be essential in this scenario, such as Junts and the CUP. This campaign has meant the umpteenth failure of the pro-independence unit, in this case due to the price of Sánchez’s investiture. Each one will go by his side from Monday, but none has closed the door on Sánchez.