EL PERIÓDICO offers this Tuesday, July 18, a new update of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote, seat and turnout estimates in the general elections on July 23. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, Predilect is the only mechanism that makes it possible to follow the latest electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
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In this new update, which already includes the effects of the latest CIS survey and the entanglement of Alberto Núñez Feijóo With the pensions, the PP has recovered the seat it lost yesterday and the sum with Vox is only one deputy short of an absolute majority, while the left-wing bloc shows no signs of recovery. Thus, the popular ones maintain their comfortable advantage in the lead and would win the elections comfortably, while the PSOE of Pedro Sanchez It would go backwards significantly and it would be increasingly difficult to try to articulate a majority with the same partners on whom it has relied during this legislature. The match of Santiago Abascal and Sumar, the coalition of Yolanda Diazmaintain their struggle for the status of third political force.
The PP would win the elections with the 35.65% of the votes and leads the PSOE by 6.7 points, which would remain in the 28.94% of the votes. With respect to the previous prediction, both the popular and the socialists remain in very similar records, so the distance between them has not changed in the last 24 hours. Barely a tenth separates Sumar, who would achieve the 13.13% of the ballots, a percentage very similar to yesterday, and Vox, which would obtain the 13.01%the same result as the day before.
The electoral race keeps two other battles very close: CKD and togetherseparated by two tenths in favor of the Republicans, and GNP and EH Bilduwhose distance is less than one tenth in favor of the peneuvistas.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of the percentage of vote of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
Converting these percentages into seats in Congress, Feijóo would obtain 139 seats (today he is 89) and Sánchez would stay with 104 deputies (now has 120). The PP has recovered the seat it lost yesterday and the PSOE maintains the same seats as 24 hours ago. Abascal would achieve 36 seats (today he has 52), the same as in the previous prediction, and Díaz would get 34 deputies (now he is 35), also the same as yesterday. ERC remains with 10 seats and Junts continues with 9 deputies. The other pulse continues as tied as yesterday: PNV and EH Bildu would collect 6 seats each. The remaining 6 parliamentarians would be distributed among other formations.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of seats of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
With these results, the right-wing bloc made up of PP and Vox would add 175 seats, one more than the day before, so that he would be left with only one deputy from the absolute majority (176) and would continue to need the support or abstention of at least a third partner to ensure the investiture. The current government coalition, PSOE and Sumar, would achieve 138 seatsthe same as yesterday, which would force Sánchez to agree, at least, with all the partners who supported him in his first investiture and with Junts per Catalunya to try to neutralize the sum of Feijóo and Abascal.
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The stake It is the great unknown of these atypical elections in the middle of summer vacations and this data may be key to the expectations of each block. Predilect estimates that they will vote on 69.68% of the census, four tenths more than yesterday and 3.4 points more in the last elections, when the worst mobilization record was obtained in general elections (66.23%). The participation record was set in 1982, with 79.97% in the first elections won by Felipe González.
After the upturn in the political map that the municipal and regional elections meant, Sánchez and Feijóo will wage the definitive battle for the hegemony of the electoral board on 23-J. The PP sails with the wind in favor of the surveys and the effect of his recent success at the polls, while the PSOE clings to the social and economic management of the Government and the possible wear and tear that the popular may suffer due to their pacts with Vox, in addition to the impact, still uncertain, that the integration of all the space to its left may have in the new Sumar brand. The sum of the left and right blocks It will undoubtedly be the determining factor on election night.