The season of the second division soccer team Hamburger SV has its first dent. The North Germans have now been without a win for three games. The development is worrying: The data shows that HSV has been playing defensively for a long time – and now it is also weaker offensively.
They tore their hair out on the square, on the bench and in the stands. HSV woke up late on Sunday against 1. FC Magdeburg, creating great chance after great chance – but the efforts came too late to prevent the 2:3 defeat. The “Red Pants” have been waiting for a win in the league for three games, the Hamburg team is only third in the table, the lead in fourth place has melted to two points.
“It’s all shit right now.”
— HSV coach Tim Walter
HSV coach Walter: “That’s pathetic”
Coach Tim Walter reacted correspondingly pissed off after the game. “If we play third in our own stadium against the 17th in the table, we have to look at our own noses if we don’t win the game,” the 46-year-old told NDR. And then expressed clear criticism of his team’s offensive performance: “In the last 15 games we didn’t have as many chances to score as we have today. In the end you have to say: That’s pathetic.”
Hamburger make too few goals
HSV’s chance evaluation is one of the club’s problems, as the numbers show. Hamburg have scored 19 goals this season so far, but according to GSN data, HSV’s “expected goals” value has been 2.00 per game since the start of the season. This means that the North Germans remain offensively well below their potential and should have already scored 26 goals.
Up to the eighth match day, this difference on the Elbe wasn’t that serious: HSV had scored twelve goals (1.50 per game) up to that point, statistically speaking it would have been 14.80 goals (1.85 per game) based on the chances be able. Conversely, this means that the Hamburgers have needed more and more chances to score their own goal from matchday to matchday. A worrying development.
Muheim: “Have to learn to defend better again”
However, there was even more need for discussion in relation to Hamburg’s defensive performance. The North Germans have conceded eleven goals in the past four competitive games. “We concede far too many goals because we make mistakes that are too easy. That’s just bad, you have to be honest,” Walter put his finger clearly in the wound. And Miro Muheim agreed with his coach: “We have to learn to defend better again. If you concede three goals at home, you don’t deserve to win.”
“Best defense in the league” – a myth since the start of the season
The once “best defense in the league” are currently conceding a lot of goals – but a look at the numbers shows that they have been very vulnerable all season. According to GNS data, the “expected goals” value in terms of goals conceded is 1.46 for all previous matchdays – that’s a total of 18 potential goals conceded. However, HSV has “only” conceded 13 so far.
But: At the beginning of the season and as leaders in the table, Hamburg played even more defensively than their means. They conceded five goals up to the eighth matchday, but the expected figure was already 13 goals (1.63 per game). The current, numerous goals conceded were already apparent in the summer.
Will the turning point succeed in Paderborn?
But how does the way out of the crisis lead for HSV? A sense of achievement against a direct competitor could not hurt to set an exclamation mark in the league again. HSV has to travel to SC Paderborn on Sunday (1.30 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter). Not an easy task, because the East Westphalians, second in the table, have scored 32 goals and, together with Heidenheim, also have the best defense (12 goals conceded) in the league.
“You win games with offense, championships with defense,” is an old sporting wisdom. HSV will have to try to find a better balance between the two in order not to jeopardize the goal of promotion to the Bundesliga in the long term.
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NDR 2 Sports | 10/24/2022 | 11:03 p.m
