Tesla shares in focus: HSBC warns of a possible price slide – analysts are divided overall

• Share weaker since the beginning of the year, but 12-month gain
• HSBC sees downside potential as EV market pressures continue
• Analysts overall are divided with a predominantly neutral stance

Performance of Tesla shares

Tesla shares have lost around 24 percent of their value on the US tech exchange NASDAQ since the beginning of the year. In the long term, however, there is a better performance: within the last twelve months, the shares increased by around 26 percent and most recently cost 343.25 US dollars. The shares have nevertheless moved significantly away from their 52-week high in December of last year at $498.83 – this represents a loss of 31 percent (as of: closing price on April 8, 2026).

HSBC expects share price slide

However, some analysts are skeptical about the further development of Tesla shares. In early January, HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall published an analysis in which he reiterated his “Reduce” recommendation and a price target of $131 for the next twelve months. At the current price of $343.25, that would mean the stock would fall about 62 percent.

Tyndall based his assessment on stronger valuation pressures stemming from momentum in the core electric vehicle market and noted that the EV market is becoming increasingly regionalized, The Motley Fool reports. Consumers in markets such as China and the EU would prefer domestically manufactured products. In 2025, Tesla recorded an 8.6 percent decline in vehicle deliveries and a decline in sales of around 3 percent. The analyst warned that if this trend continues, the stock could come under pressure until progress on the company’s other growth projects appears more certain.

Delivery figures below expectations

Last week, Tesla presented its delivery figures for the first quarter. The US electric car manufacturer delivered 6.3 percent more vehicles year-on-year: deliveries rose to 358,023 vehicles. However, the Musk Group fell short of analysts’ expectations. These were based on an average of around 370,000 deliveries. As the company announced, production increased by 12.6 percent to 408,386 vehicles compared to the same period last year.

In the EU, as dpa-AFX reported, citing figures from the industry association Acea, new Tesla registrations increased by 16.7 percent year-on-year to 20,941 vehicles in the first two months.

Analysts disagree

Canadian bank RBC confirmed its rating on Tesla as “outperform” and a price target of $500, although first-quarter delivery figures fell short of expectations, according to analyst Tom Narayan. The reported data on the energy storage business was also weaker than hoped. In principle, this area is considered to be potentially favored by the increasing demand for electricity as a result of AI growth.

The US bank JPMorgan confirms its “underweight” assessment for Tesla with a price target of $145, which, similar to HSBC’s price target, clearly implies losses for Tesla shares. Analyst Ryan Brinkman also pointed out that deliveries in the first quarter fell short of expectations. In addition, a significant increase in unsold vehicles has increased concerns about free cash flow.

Further assessments

According to TipRanks, 32 Wall Street analysts have provided a 12-month price target for Tesla stock in the last three months. Of the 32 analysts, 13 recommend buying the shares, eleven gave a hold rating and eight analysts recommend selling the shares, resulting in an overall hold rating.

The average price target is $393.97, with a high forecast of $600.00 and a low forecast of $25.28. The average price target corresponds to a change of 14.78 percent compared to the last price of $343.25 (as of: closing price on April 8, 2026).

Julia Walter, Martina Köhler, editorial team finanzen.net

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