After the USA and Iran agreed on a ceasefire at the last minute, the DAX set off fireworks. On Thursday, however, the ceasefire was again in jeopardy.
At the start of Thursday trading, the DAX lost 0.41 percent to 23,981.22 points and thus slipped below the 24,000 point mark. As trading continued, the leading index increased its losses and was clearly in the red. It ultimately ended 1.14 percent weaker at 23,806.99 points.
After Israel attacks on Lebanon: Iran threatens to collapse ceasefire
The day before, the last-minute ceasefire in the Iran war brought relief to investors. But after Israel’s devastating air strikes in Lebanon, Iran is threatening to rupture the ceasefire it had just agreed with the USA. The USA would have to decide – “either a ceasefire or a continuation of the war via Israel. You cannot have both,” wrote Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Platform X. US President Donald Trump also threatened Iran with a new military escalation if a comprehensive agreement was not reached.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump said on Thursday night (US local time) that US military ships, aircraft and soldiers would remain stationed around Iran, with additional equipment if necessary, until the “REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully adhered to.” Everything is being prepared that is necessary for the “lethal pursuit and destruction” of an already weakened opponent, the Republican continued.
Strait of Hormuz: Passage only after coordination with the Revolutionary Guard
Despite the ceasefire agreement with the USA, Iran continues to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for the global oil and gas market. Because of the danger of mines, ships would have to coordinate with the Revolutionary Guards and use designated alternative routes, according to a message from the port authority broadcast by state broadcaster IRIB. On Wednesday evening, the Iranian Fars news agency reported that Iran had suspended shipping traffic through the strait again in protest over Israel’s attacks in Lebanon. Only two oil tankers have passed through them since the ceasefire began.
US Vice President JD Vance described the two-week ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran as “fragile”. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the mutual cessation of hostilities are “the basis for the fragile ceasefire we have,” he said in Budapest.
The situation in Iran remains confusing
“The fourteen-day ceasefire agreed between the USA and Iran turns out to be a very shaky construct,” wrote Andreas Lipkow, chief market analyst at the trading house CMC Markets. It was to be expected that the negotiations and maintaining the ceasefire would prove to be very difficult. According to the expert, the situation in Iran remains confusing.
Oil prices are rising again
Oil prices remain the most important indicator of inflation and economic concerns on the market, and thus investors’ willingness to take risks. The day before, the price for a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent fell to almost $90, its lowest level since mid-March. Brent oil now costs around $97 again.
Deutsche Börse sentiment analysis: Private DAX investors are becoming increasingly cautious
As can be seen from the latest weekly sentiment survey by Deutsche Börse, the bear camp gained 8 percentage points to 41 percent in the week ended April 8th. Only 44 percent were bullish, which is 6 percentage points less. The neutral camp lost 2 percentage points to 15 percent. Institutional investors, on the other hand, are different: Here the bulls increased their majority by 1 percentage point to 55 percent.
The divergence in sentiment between private investors and institutional investors has continued to widen, notes sentiment analyst Joachim Goldberg. The fact that private individuals are so much more pessimistic than professionals could be due to previously different positioning. The courage of some private investors to turn directly from “long” to “short” is likely to be an indication that profits had previously been made.
Institutional investors, on the other hand, only took a small amount of profits, but this is probably not because they believe in a sustainable turnaround in the Iran war, says Goldberg. Rather, he fears that the significant recovery of the DAX on Wednesday was not enough to emerge relatively unscathed from the bullish commitments that were partly established weeks ago. The corresponding (perceived) purchase prices are probably even higher than the DAX level of 24,000 points seen on Wednesday, Goldberg continues.
DAX record last in January
On January 13th, the DAX reached an all-time high of 25,507.79 points, exceeding the 25,500 point threshold for the first time in its history. Ultimately, it ended the day at 25,420.66 points, which was a new record based on the closing price.
Benedict Kurschat, Melanie Schürmann, Martina Köhler, Bettina Schneider, finanzen.net editorial team with material from dpa-AFX and Dow Jones Newswires
