Inter, defense alarm: it’s not for the Scudetto. The numbers and the analysis

If Inter are top of the table at this moment of the season, they owe it to their attack more than their defence. They score like no other team in the league, but concede more goals than the eighth in the league. Translated into numbers: compared to 42 goals scored (12 more than Milan and Napoli), they conceded 17, as many as third-placed Napoli and more than Juventus, Lazio, Milan, Como and Roma. The first in the table has the fifth defense in the championship. In the last five seasons, the championship has been won by those who at this point of the season were in first place with a very low average of goals conceded: last year Napoli after 20 matchdays had conceded just 12 goals and then won the title, the year before (that of the second star) Inter had managed to concede just 10 and before that again Napoli had conceded 15 goals in the same period. Different story in the 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons: in the first, Inter, despite having conceded 17 goals (the same number as this year), dominated the championship after 20 days but in the end Milan won; in the second, vice versa, Milan were first with 23 goals conceded but at the end of the season Inter rejoiced.

TO WIN YOU NEED THE BEST DEFENSE

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So keep an eye out, defense is a factor in the title race. Here I am. And also concentration backward in big matches it makes the difference. So far, Inter have conceded 5 goals from Napoli in two games, 4 from Juve and one from Milan which was still enough for Allegri to take the derby. Ten collected against the 6 made. A difference of -4 which reiterates the difficulties of Chivu’s team in big matches in which they are unable to impose themselves: starting from last season, Inter have not won any of the 13 matches against Napoli, Milan and Juve considering all competitions (6 draws and 7 defeats) and have won just 5 points out of 30 available against these three from 2024 to today.

gaps and market

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Akanji against Napoli wasn’t the same wall as his last outings, Bisseck was caught by surprise on the goals and especially on the second he moved late when he was headed by McTominay, Sommer didn’t make up for the shortcomings of the line in front of him and in 90 minutes he conceded as many goals as he had conceded in the last 6 games. Bastoni, the only one rested last Wednesday in Parma, admitted that facing Hojlund was “very difficult because he is very strong and has grown a lot. I didn’t remember him like this when he was at Atalanta…”. And then, slowly down the right lane, where the final 2-2 came from. “The club and the manager must act in concert, then the coach may not know all the players in the world but we have the obligation to discuss with him to outline the necessary profiles – said president Marotta, returning to the possibility that a reinforcement in that portion of the pitch will arrive from the market -. In this case, we have a large squad that responds to the objectives of the season. We have this flaw linked to Denzel Dumfries’ injury, if we can strengthen that side of the squad we will do so but it is not easy to find a profile from Inter. These are opportunities that are rare to find in January.”

what’s good

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The only positive note after the 90 minutes against Napoli is Dimarco’s moment of exploits, with his second consecutive goal (the third for the Azzurri, the winger’s favorite victims) which increased his personal tally of goals to 19 since returning to Inter. And no defender has done better than him in Serie A. And not only that: with four goals and five assists Dimarco has been involved in nine goals this season, better than any other role-playing colleague in the top five European leagues. Chivu is holding onto this extra-attack scoring streak but to hold on to first place even more tightly he will have to think about the goals he concedes rather than the ones he scores. First place is maintained (only) like this.