It is probably a luxury problem in the literal sense: the watch market is changing. Some specimens are no longer as popular as they were a few years ago. For those interested, this means: If you want to convert cash gifts or vouchers into a valuable timepiece in the days after Christmas, you will find a wide range of offers in many displays. The hype is dying down – and with it some prices.
Sure, it can still be high four to five-figure sums. But luxury watches are now available more quickly than they were a few years ago, as industry experts note. The general manager of the Federal Association of Jewellery, Watches, Silverware and Related Industries (BVSU), Guido Grohmann, says: “The waiting time is significantly shorter today.”
Frank Michael Müller, who regularly creates a “clock monitor” with his company Responsio, makes a similar statement. But he emphasizes: “It varies from model to model.” It is certainly possible to save a few percent here and there. There are also some brands that are not doing so well at the moment. “But I wouldn’t call it a crisis.”
Gen Z has different priorities
The online marketplace Chrono24 from Karlsruhe and the watch platform Fratello analyzed the market shares of various manufacturers in a study for the first half of 2025. It was shown that prices for brands such as Rolex in stores via Chrono24 are stabilizing “after the wave of speculation during the pandemic period has given way to more sustainable demand”. In the high-end segment, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet have also left the speculative price peaks of the Corona period behind them, it was said.
According to the analysis, one of the decisive factors is that Generation Z is changing the luxury watch market. “For decades, sporty steel watches have dominated younger buyers, but now there is a clear trend towards dress watches – smaller, simpler and more elegant models.” According to the evaluation, Cartier is particularly popular with Gen Z.
Measured in terms of sales on Chrono24, demand for Cartier in Germany across all age groups increased by more than a fifth over the year from January to November 2025, according to a spokesman. However, Cartier’s market share is only 3.8 percent. No comparison to Rolex, which is the undisputed number one on the watch market despite a slight decline in Germany from 39.2 to 38.9 percent.
Political influences
But there are far more reasons for the development in the industry, as BVSU representative Grohmann says: In addition to the usual fluctuations, China and the USA, for example, played an important role.
Chinese politicians are taking strong action against corruption. Many people there avoided buying luxury items with brand names so as not to come under suspicion. “As a result, the Chinese market for European luxury brands has become smaller.”
Since the offer has increased, the secondary market – which takes place primarily on the Internet – has collapsed, says the BVSU managing director. “Not as much is being bought as in Corona times.” Business has shifted back to stationary retail.
In general, the global luxury market has recently shrunk, according to a study by the management consultancy Bain & Company and the Italian luxury goods association Fondazione Altagamma. Luxury is increasingly being defined by experiences and no longer just by possessions, it said in November when the Bain study was published.
The USA is an important watch market for German manufacturers, says Grohmann. From his point of view, it was crucial that the US tariffs for Switzerland fell to 15 percent in 2025, as they also apply to the EU. When it comes to imports, the customs rate depends on the country from which the clockwork comes. “And most German manufacturers use Swiss watch movements.”
Industry observer Müller also points to the general uncertainty in view of world politics: “People are holding their money together.” This is particularly noticeable in the price range between 1,000 and 5,000 euros. “When you get over 10,000, you don’t think about it that much anymore.” Grohmann also admits: “Luxury watches are a special interest market.” If you buy watches that sometimes cost more than 7,000 euros, fluctuations usually don’t matter much.
Too much “one size fits all” sauce?
But even if it is a small group in terms of quantity, large sums are involved, emphasizes Müller. And the desire for more individuality is noticeably growing among customers. Therefore, some manufacturers would have to ask themselves how they want to position themselves in the future. “It can’t be a copy of other models,” says Müller. This poses the risk that too many watches will look very similar from the consumers’ point of view and, in the worst case, will be perceived as “one size fits all”, criticizes the expert.
Mass brands in particular are currently having a harder time. Smaller brands, on the other hand, could score points if they sold high-quality products at a reasonable price-performance ratio. He cites Glashütte Mühle as an example. Or MeisterSinger and Botta in the single-hand watch sector. “It’s not just about the brand, but you can directly tell something.”
In Müller’s words, even expensive watches generally don’t end up in a safe as an investment: “You use them, you wear them because you enjoy them.”