Optimism – Cryptocurrency exchange sees Bitcoin at $170,000 in 2026
The research center of the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Korbit sees Bitcoin significantly higher in the coming year. Institutional demand and US fiscal policy are the main drivers.
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• Korbit Research Center predicts Bitcoin between $140,000 and $170,000 in 2026
• ETFs and corporate balance sheets already hold around 11.7 percent of the Bitcoin supply
• US fiscal policy and institutional demand are seen as the main drivers for the expected price increase
Forecast: Bitcoin between $140,000 and $170,000
In its fourth annual market outlook dated December 5, 2025, the Korbit Research Center forecasts a Bitcoin price between $140,000 and $170,000 in 2026. As the report shows, the analysis deliberately deviates from the traditional four-year halving cycle thesis. Instead, analysts see price developments driven less by limited supply and more by productivity-driven US growth under policies they describe as “stronger Reaganomics.”
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According to the Korbit report, ETFs and so-called digital asset treasuries (companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets) together hold about 11.7 percent of the total Bitcoin supply as of November 2025. This structural, institutional demand is fundamentally changing how investors view digital assets. Bitcoin now operates like a store of value at “sovereign level” and is on an equal footing with gold and the US dollar in institutional allocations.
US fiscal policy as a catalyst
According to Korbit, the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OB3), which came into force in July 2025, is central to the forecast. Among other things, the law restores 100 percent immediate depreciation for investments. Analysts estimate that these regulations could reduce effective corporate tax rates to 10 to 12 percent, triggering an investment boom and foreign direct investment. This mix of fiscal policy measures will strengthen the US dollar – contrary to the Wall Street consensus, which expects devaluation.
In a strong dollar environment with disinflationary trends, gold could underperform as an interest-free asset, while Bitcoin solidifies its position as a store of value alongside the US dollar. This makes Bitcoin’s usual four-year cycle less relevant. Instead of a sharp rally at the end of 2025, experts expect a consolidation in the range between $100,000 and $120,000, with a possible second price high in 2026 if liquidity returns.
Bernstein also sees an extended bull market
The Korean stock exchange is not alone in its optimistic assessment. As per a research note from global brokerage firm Bernstein shared by VanEck’s Matthew Sigel on Platform Analysts declared the traditional four-year cycle to be “broken” and spoke of an “extended bull market” in which institutional buying offset any panic selling by retail investors.
Bernstein: “In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.
Despite a ~30% Bitcoin…– matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) December 8, 2025
Despite a correction of around 30 percent since the beginning of October 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have only seen around 5 percent outflows, according to Bernstein – a sign of the conviction of institutional investors. Bernstein names a price target of $200,000 for a possible cycle peak in 2027. The long-term target for 2033 is around $1 million per Bitcoin.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net