Japan is quietly preparing for the Taiwan crisis

Chinese fighter planes twice aimed their fire control radar at Japanese F-15s over international waters last week. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called it an “extremely regrettable” and “dangerous action” and filed an official protest. Beijing responded with a counter-protest, speaking of “evil” Japanese behavior and complaining of “dangerous maritime maneuvers at sea.” Japan says China has cut off the military hotline between the two countries during the near-confrontation didn’t answerChina brought sound recordings who had to demonstrate that it was an exercise that had been properly announced.

The incident shows how great the risk of a military escalation between the two countries – whether intended or unintended – has become, now that mutual tensions have risen considerably. This started after Takaichi said in parliament a month that a Chinese attack or blockade around Taiwan could pose a “life-threatening situation”. That qualification legally opens the door to Japanese military involvement. Beijing reacted fiercely, summoning the Japanese ambassador and warning of a “crushing defeat” if Tokyo were to interfere with Taiwan.

Takaichi said afterward that her statements did not represent a change in policy – she said previous Japanese governments had the same position. But in the meantime, Japan is making increasingly serious preparations for a possible Taiwan crisis, while it is not allowed to mention China’s reality.

The Japanese Self-Defense Forces – as the army is officially called – are more present in international military exercises, the southern island belt around Okinawa has been converted into a forward defense zone and the government is working on evacuation plans for hundreds of thousands of civilians. Japan is thus steadily moving towards a role it officially denies pursuing: military involvement in the region.

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Following statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about possible Japanese military interference in a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan, tensions have risen in the region.

Photo Franck Robichon/EPA/ANP, Photo Defense Japan via Reuters

Vulnerable artery

Officially, Tokyo adheres to “strategic ambiguity” with regard to Taiwan, says researcher Mina Pollmann of the Leiden Asia Center. That attitude has its origins in Washington. The United States has deliberately kept China in limbo for decades about whether it would defend Taiwan, hoping to discourage aggression without making formal commitments. “Tokyo is unlikely to defend Taiwan if Washington does not,” Pollmann explains. “Japan has little choice in this regard, because it relies heavily on American security guarantees.” And the reverse also applies: “If China attacks Taiwan and the United States intervenes, Japan is likely to be drawn into the conflict.”

A look at the map immediately makes it clear why: Taiwan is only 110 kilometers from the Japanese island of Yonaguni, in a zone where military aircraft and ships increasingly cross each other. The United States also maintains its largest military presence outside its own territory in Okinawa Prefecture. It automatically makes any escalation around Taiwan a Japanese security issue.

This is not the only reason why Japan runs the risk of becoming embroiled in a US military response: the country is also highly dependent on maritime supply routes around Taiwan. More than 90 percent of Japan’s trade passes through the area. A disruption would hit Japan’s economy within days. Taiwan is therefore a vulnerable artery for Tokyo.

Japan and the US have been working on a strategy for some time to prevent a quick Chinese victory over Taiwan

But Prime Minister Takaichi must perform a complicated balancing act. The recently published National Security Strategy of Japan’s most important military ally, the United States, states that Taiwan is “more necessary than ever” to be armed and that allies must contribute more to their own defense. Japan is mentioned as the hub in the first defense ring around Taiwan.

Chinese print

This American demand is countered by Chinese pressure to keep aloof, and thus the diplomatic margin for Japan is becoming increasingly smaller. China’s fierce reaction to Takaichi’s statements shows how sensitive this playing field is, said Takuya Matsuda, assistant professor of international politics at Aoyama Gakuin University. “What she said was factually correct, that a Taiwan crisis is inextricably linked to Japan’s defense. But it wasn’t exactly productive to say it so explicitly,” he notes.

“Japan and the US have been working for some time on a strategy to prevent a quick Chinese victory over Taiwan,” Matsuda continues. By increasing missile capacity and building army bases on the island belt, Tokyo wants to frustrate any short, decisive military campaign by China. Matsuda calls this “deterrence by denial,” building up enough strength in the region to make an invasion unattractive.

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However, that strategy only works as long as Tokyo does not talk about it too openly, because explicit statements directly provoke China and increase tensions, as is happening now. Precisely by keeping quiet, Japan can continue to prepare for a Taiwan crisis without escalating the situation further.

It does this, for example, by drawing up evacuation plans for the island belt around Okinawa. “These plans are still early,” says Pollmann, who is conducting research into it. But she sees a clear change in tone in that preparation. “Tokyo is increasingly realizing that a crisis over Taiwan would directly affect Japan, geographically and economically, and that it can no longer pretend that it could stay out of such a conflict.”

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