After months of decline, SAP shares sent positive signals again last week. How sustainable is the trend?
• SAP has fallen by around 25 percent since its record high in February
• Strong figures from competitor Salesforce give hope for recovery
• Growth pressure in cloud business and legal risks remain key uncertainty factors
SAP shares cost 283.50 euros in February – so the year 2025 started with a new record level for the DAX giant. Since then, however, the balance has been sobering: the share has lost around 25 percent of its all-time high; on Friday, SAP closed in XETRA trading at 212.50 euros.
Slight plus on a weekly basis
From the perspective of the last trading week, investors once again have a slight increase in their portfolio. This was due to strong quarterly figures from the competition: In the last quarter of the year, Salesforce achieved earnings of $3.25 per share. That was significantly more than analysts had expected. On the revenue side, Salesforce reported $10.3 billion for the third quarter of its fiscal 2026, up from $9.44 billion in the same period last year.
The company’s outlook was particularly convincing: Thanks to the demand for products relating to artificial intelligence (AI) and the recently completed takeover of the data management company Informatica, the company is now looking more optimistically towards the current financial year.
This also drove up SAP shares.
Price slide stopped: Will Salesforce bring about a lasting turnaround?
It remains to be seen whether the recent upward trend in SAP shares will continue. Investors are particularly looking at the company’s operational development: in the third quarter of 2025, the group reported earnings per share of 1.72 euros (previous year: 1.25 euros) and sales growth of a good 7 percent to 9.08 billion euros. For the full year 2025, analysts expect an average of earnings per share of around 6.04 euros and a dividend of around 2.40 euros per share (previous year: 2.35 euros). However, the fact that cloud growth in the third quarter fell to its lowest level since the end of 2023 and the group fell slightly short of sales expectations is weighing on the mood. In addition, legal risks in the USA due to a lawsuit alleging theft of trade secrets are causing uncertainty.
Analysts remain confident
Analysts had recently expressed their confidence. The major Swiss bank UBS left the rating for SAP at “Buy” with a price target of 300 euros after an in-house technology and AI conference. In his speech, CFO Christian Klein named the business data cloud and artificial intelligence as currently crucial topics in almost all customer discussions, wrote Michael Briest. Depending on how SAP makes further progress here, the upward potential for AI-related sales in the next three to four years will be significantly greater than the previously communicated target of one billion euros.
JPMorgan is also exercising optimism: – The US bank has lowered the price target for SAP from 310 to 290 euros, but left the rating at “Overweight”. 2025 was difficult for Europe’s software and IT industry, which was affected by the disruption caused by artificial intelligence (AI), wrote analyst Toby Ogg in his outlook on Wednesday evening. But every “cloud” also has its silver lining. At SAP, he is focusing on accelerating growth and attractive profit increases in 2026. First of all, Ogg is also very optimistic about the annual report and expects a strong fourth quarter and robust targets. He therefore also put the stamp “Positive Catalyst Watch” on the papers.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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