Shares of Rheinmetall, RENK and HENSOLDT under pressure: These are Trump’s 28 points for peace in Ukraine

Several media outlets such as the US news portal “Axios” published the listing, the contents of which were also confirmed by government officials from the USA and Ukraine. In Kiev, MP Olexij Honcharenko, who belongs to the opposition European Solidarity faction, posted the plan online in Ukrainian. An overview of some suggestions:

Ukrainian and European security

Ukraine’s sovereignty is confirmed. It is agreed not to attack each other. In its constitution, Ukraine renounces joining NATO. NATO has committed itself never to admit Ukraine and not to station any troops in Ukraine. Russia should commit itself by law to renounce aggression against Europe and Ukraine.

Ukraine remains free of nuclear weapons. It receives – which are not explained in detail in the text – “reliable security guarantees” from the USA to protect against future Russian aggression. The USA, in turn, is compensated for these guarantees. The number of troops in the Ukrainian army will be limited to 600,000 men – from currently 800,000 to 850,000 men, according to media reports. Ukraine is allowed to join the EU.

Territorial issues

Crimea and the also annexed Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk are recognized as de facto Russian. The Ukrainian army is clearing the parts of Donetsk that it still has control over. In the southern areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the current front line is set as the dividing line.

The Russian army is clearing the occupied territories in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Russia renounces further territorial claims. Territorial questions may only be resolved peacefully, otherwise all security guarantees are void. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be subordinated to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the electricity produced there will be divided equally between Ukraine and Russia.

Reconstruction of Ukraine – Rehabilitation of Russia

An international fund for the reconstruction and development of Ukrainian infrastructure will be established. The USA is particularly helping to expand the Ukrainian gas industry. $100 billion of confiscated Russian state assets will go toward U.S.-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine. The US receives 50 percent of possible profits. The EU is contributing $100 billion to reconstruction and releasing confiscated Russian assets.

Russia is being reintegrated into the global economy.

Humanitarian issues, elections and ceasefire

Prisoners and dead people are exchanged on the principle of “all for all”. There is a comprehensive amnesty for everyone involved in the war. Ukraine guarantees the linguistic and religious rights of minorities in accordance with EU standards.

Elections will be held in Ukraine 100 days after the agreement is concluded.

When all sides have agreed to the agreement and the agreed military withdrawal is completed, the ceasefire begins.

Why does this affect the shares of Rheinmetall, HENSOLDT and RENK?

The speculation about a possible ceasefire plan significantly influenced the prices of leading German defense companies. In XETRA trading, the three German arms stocks were significantly in the red: Rheinmetall’s shares lost 7.18 percent to 1,519.50 euros on Friday, and fell by a further 7.11 percent to 1,503 euros after trading via Tradegate. At HENSOLDT there was a loss of 6.57 percent at 72.50 euros at the end of the XETRA. Here too, over-the-counter sales continued at -4.11 percent to 72.40 euros. The bears also dominate the transmission manufacturer RENK: While the share ultimately fell by 8.36 percent to 50.86 euros in XETRA trading, it fell by a further 6.32 percent to 50.40 euros after the trading session.

These price reactions are related to the possibility of an end to hostilities. However, analysts pointed out that the prospects for peace are currently slim due to little overlap in the ideas of both sides. After initial speculation about talks, David Perry from JPMorgan wrote that the US plan would de facto amount to a victory for Russia, which would only boost European defense spending. Citigroup’s Charles Armitage also suggested that an end to the conflict would simply usher in a period of mutual monitoring, as Russia could be prepared for a potential conflict with Europe within five years.

dpa-AFX / editorial team finanzen.net

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