On Thursday we will meet the first opponent on the road to the World Cup
The playoff is an inelastic collision: the bodies that collide change shape after the collision. Italy tasted its destructive effects, first in 2017 and then in 2022, failing to qualify for the World Cup twice in a row. However, it is now useless to ruminate on past mistakes, just as it is anachronistic to reflect on a FIFA regulation that has deprived European football of its traditional centrality. The only thing that matters is reaching the goal in the two matches that will be played on March 26th and, hopefully, March 31st.
First step
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We will know the route on Thursday, in the Zurich draw, with the knowledge of playing the semi-final at home. In three days the potential opponents of the eventual final will also be revealed, which will always be a single match with home field factor decided by the ballot box. Three years ago North Macedonia arrived with the worrying prospect of playing Qatar at Portugal’s home. Mancini didn’t even get to the last act. This time the mentality must be different, as Gattuso reminds us: we must focus on one event at a time, without projecting ambition beyond reality.
Bogeyman
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Being seeded by ranking, Italy will face one of the fourth tier teams in the semi-final. The problem, however, is that the national teams eliminated in the qualifiers who obtained the most gratifying results in Nations converge here. Among these, the most dangerous is Sweden, who entrusted their rebirth to the Englishman Graham Potter and who collected 1 point in their group. How is this possible? The media reported some internal disagreements, which resulted in the dismissal of former AC Milan player Tomasson, but the team was penalized by the physical problems of the two aces: the forwards Gyokeres and Isak moved to Arsenal and Liverpool in the summer, for a total sum of more than 200 million euros, but were unable to provide a contribution. Four Gyokeres matches, only one with Isak starting. In March, however, it is conceivable that both are in good condition: imagine if Italy had faced Norway without Haaland and Sorloth…
The others
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In short, it is better to avoid Sweden and not just because of the terrible precedent of 2017. A rematch with Macedonia would be much more comfortable, if anything, provided they are beaten in the… play-off against Wales. Otherwise, the British would be among the four possible candidates, although they do not seem insurmountable. And speaking of the United Kingdom: another semi-final hypothesis is Italy-Northern Ireland, which evokes other embarrassing yet dated memories, namely the elimination from the 1958 World Cup. It is the smallest of the lot. Even weaker than Romania, the last option, picked up like Sweden by the Nations. They can be beaten, despite the alchemy of the old scoundrel Lucescu, because it is no longer Hagi’s team. Indeed, yes, of his son Ianis who inherited the number 10 shirt: with all due respect it is not the same thing.
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