The arithmetic leaves a glimmer of hope, the numbers close it: for direct qualification, a gap never seen before in a decisive match would be needed. However, some sensational precedents exist
But can Italy still go to the World Cup without making the playoffs? If we rely on mathematics, the answer is yes. If we look at reality, we need a shot that borders on football science fiction. Norway’s 4-1 win over Estonia outlined a picture already clearly favorable to the Scandinavians, but the success of Gattuso’s national team in Moldova keeps the flame alive. With one matchday to go, the standings say 21 points for Haaland and his teammates, 18 for the Azzurri. But it is the goal difference that separates two worlds: +29 against +12.
the opponent
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The path of the Norwegians speaks for itself. Best attack among the fifty-four European national teams: 33 goals scored, just four conceded and an average of 4.7 goals per game. A machine that never slowed down, led by fourteen goals from the Manchester City giant, five from Thelo Aasgaard and five from Alexander Sørloth, with the rest of the group – Ajer, Donnum, Myhre, Wolfe, Nusa, Odegaard and Ryerson – all on target. Numbers that even overshadowed Italy’s six consecutive victories after the defeat in Oslo. Gattuso has rekindled hopes, but the margins remain the same: the Azzurri reach the direct clash with a gap of +12 and the only way to overturn everything is to sign an unrepeatable masterpiece.
the reality of the facts
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The rules are simple and clear: if they finish on equal points, goal difference counts. To catch up with Norway and overcome them, Italy would have to win by at least nine goals. Only in this way would he rise to +21, leaving his opponents at +20. Translated: we need a 9-0. Against a team that conceded four goals in the entire group. A combination that seems beyond all logic, and in fact something like this has never been seen in a decisive match for a World Cup. Yet the history of international football has given some exaggeration. In 1954 Hungary beat South Korea 9-0, in 1974 Yugoslavia did the same against Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo). And there is Spain’s unforgettable 12-1 defeat of Malta in 1983, one of the most sensational results ever recorded in a qualifying round. More “contained”, but still iconic, Argentina’s 6-0 defeat of Peru in the 1978 World Cup, which completely changed the fate of the group.
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