The success against the Spaniard is essential. If De Minaur beat Fritz, Lorenzo would be certain to pass. Otherwise he should win 2 sets to zero with Carlos
Thanks to the splendid victory against De Minaur, Lorenzo Musetti remains in the running for the Finals in Turin, his first career participation. Access to the semi-finals will be played in the third match of the group, tomorrow against Carlos Alcaraz. Let’s say it straight away: the chances of continuing the adventure in the “tournament of the masters” depend on the scalp of the world number 1, and that might not be enough. After the first two days, the situation in the Connors group is as follows: Alcaraz 2-0 (two wins, zero defeats, with 4 sets won and one lost), Fritz 1-1 (3-2 sets), Musetti 1-1 (2-3), De Minaur 0-2 (1-4). With the same number of matches won at the end of the round robin, the final ranking is determined by these criteria: in the event of a two-handed finish, the result of the direct clash counts; in the event of a three-way finish, the best percentage of sets won, the best percentage of games won and the position in the ATP ranking count in order.
the scenarios
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Let’s look forward to tomorrow. If Alcaraz beat Musetti by any score, Lorenzo would be out. Things, obviously, would change if the blue managed to accomplish the feat of defeating Carlos. We should look at the outcome of the other match, between Fritz and De Minaur. In the event of De Minaur’s victory, Musetti would gain the pass to the semi-finals by beating Alcaraz with any score (therefore, indifferently, in two or three sets): together with Lorenzo, he would go from second place to the Spaniard. If Fritz were to prevail, then the Italian would be forced to beat the Spaniard two sets to zero: the American would qualify first, Musetti second.