And now you see it! And now you see it! It’s the glorious JP… Morgan. The political and economic intervention of the US power conglomerate in Argentina is reaching its maximum expression, perhaps in the entire history of the country. 23 years later, the advice of economist Rudi Dornbusch that we accept a temporary “external intervention” until we emerge from the crisis seems to be fulfilled. Maybe, why not? Let’s be creative in the search for solutions! If we are going to start finding the buts, we are never going to achieve it. We would only have to review some “small” issues and that’s it.
When the German economist said that it was towards the beginning of Duhalde’s government, when everything was uncertain. On the other hand, now, after 22 months of Milei’s mandate, everything is… uncertainty? “Wow, what a coincidence!” Les Luthiers would say. At the same moment that the reader sees these lines, Pandora’s Box of turnout at the polls will have already been unleashed, which, depending on how many of us go, can tip the balance to one side or the other.
The government arrives, in terms of discharge approval, at its worst moment, hand in hand with an endless number of unfavorable street economic indicators. Let’s review the combo: recessive scenario + fatigue with the leadership style + lack of empathy on highly sensitive issues + suspicions of corruption. It is an ruling party that already looked deteriorated before the Buenos Aires election and 9/7 hit it deeply. Since that date 7 weeks have passed and the libertarian government only had headaches: first the Espert saga, then the markets distrusted it and, therefore, it was necessary to go in a procession to Washington DC so that the American friend – who is not Ripley – could throw us a noose. With all this, the electoral projection became inauspicious.
But the photo is not the only thing that matters. A key question that every professionally designed public opinion study must ask is “who doesn’t want to win,” because we already know that fears are more powerful as a mobilizing factor than hopes. Therefore, there will be many voters who – a little bit upset by disappointment – will want to give Javo a vote of confidence so that “the worst” does not happen. This goes hand in hand with greater electoral participation, which is impossible to calculate. The absolute coincidence of all political camps is apathy. In this sense, 9/7 was able to convince more than one to check purple and then God will tell.
Three presidents out of eight since 1983 lost their first midterm election: De la Rúa, Cristina and Alberto. All the others enjoyed a first vote of confidence because they had concrete achievements on the table, whether low inflation, growth, or both at the same time. Following this line, the libertarian lion should come out well in this key test, because the country is growing and inflation is lower than in 2024. Why is it so complicated then? 1) remember that perception is important, not objective data; 2) as we already pointed out, Argentina is going to grow, but activity is stagnant and this generates negative expectations about the future, which rule when push comes to shove; and 3) not everything is the economy, stupid: perhaps if the president had not tired with his shows and insults, if he had had a different attitude – we are not even talking about more money – towards the disabled or retirees, and he had not had a string of suspicions of corruption, we would be talking differently.
As the Milei phenomenon is unprecedented, many of the things that happen in these 4 years will be extra – ordinary. Therefore, it should not be ruled out that, despite the sum of negative factors, the “cuddly kitten” saves Gardel’s clothes and feels comfortable. As this is an election of 24 districts – where national polls have a hard time capturing everything that happens with very dissimilar offers – the most reasonable simulations speak of a technical tie. In Creole it means that LLA can win or lose by very little. The probability of a catastrophic photo – losing by several points – is very low.
If there are no surprises in that sense, the most interesting thing will begin to happen on Monday, since there are 3 key questions: 1) does the government know what it has to do?, 2) does it believe it has to do it?, and 3) will it know how to do it? The answer to the first question is positive because they have already told you in all possible languages: the political and economic have to become more sustainable. The second question is more difficult to resolve. There is a consensus that the band system does not provide more, but free floating will generate short-term irritation. Regarding politics, the contradictions of the president in recent days – so-and-so are leaving, but I will decide that on Monday, but I will put a patch on Quirno, another former JP – do not help. If you are not clear about the political engineering for the second part of the mandate, then what changes will you make? If the eventual enthronement of the young wonder is added to Quirno, that means that he will go to a more inbred scheme, the opposite of what “Ripley” Trump advises him. Of course: for an endogamous leadership there is nothing better than an endogamous cabinet, to paraphrase Perón.
If the second is complicated, let’s not even talk about the third. Between the internal struggles, the lack of experienced political cadres with their own volume, added to the inadequacies they have had in managing monetary/exchange matters, the future does not look promising. With an aggravating factor: all the deputies and senators who arrive will not have been part of a presidential project as in 2023, but will be purely and exclusively from the governors: no less than 15 provincial heads could be counted who today do not belong to either FP or LLA (and some who are on those two sides may change). Will Argentina be more federal than ever?
Are we dying and we didn’t realize it? He who fights is not dead.
By Carlos Fara
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