Donald Trump is known to be easily convinced – at least temporarily. Whoever speaks last to the American president can be decisive in his decisions that affect the entire world. Especially if that person knows exactly how to stroke Trump’s ego. Enter Mark Rutte.
The NATO boss flew to Washington to cajole and prod Trump on Wednesday, after he had visited Vladimir Putin on the phone and Volodymyr Zelensky. The goal: a ceasefire in Ukraine, which Trump is ambivalent about at best. The method: make Trump believe that such a truce is his own idea. The strategy: Encourage Trump to pressure Putin as he did with Benjamin Netanyahu.
During a press moment after their meeting, Trump was busy with all kinds of other matters: the criticized construction of a ballroom at the White House, his disagreement with the president of Colombia and blaming the Democrats for the shutdown. The few times Rutte spoke, he emphasized how great and powerful Trump is, his successful diplomacy in the Middle East, the importance of sanctions against Russia and “the president’s vision for a ceasefire” in Ukraine.
Donbas
In August, Trump in conversation with European leadersfurther suggested that Ukraine should give up parts of the eastern Donbas region that Russia has never occupied either in 2014 or since the 2022 invasion. With Zelensky next to him in the Oval Office, he emphasized that a ceasefire was unnecessary. Trump, who promised during last year’s presidential campaign to resolve the Eastern European conflict within 24 hours, claimed that the real peace he would achieve would not require a pause in fighting. Since then, Russian bombings have continued and Ukraine occasionally tries to strike back.
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Trump’s erratic Ukraine policy does not bring an end to the war an inch closer. On the contrary: Putin can continue attacking for a while
After the – permanent or otherwise – agreement on Gaza and Moscow’s continued unwillingness to stop the Ukraine war, Trump suggested last Sunday that the conflict in Ukraine should be frozen on the current front line. “Cut it the way it is now,” he told reporters on the Donbas aboard Air Force One. “They can make real agreements later. But I say: cut it off and stop on the fighting line. Go home. Stop the fighting. Stop killing people.” He did not use the term ceasefire, but Rutte saw an opening.
Until this week, Trump, in his nine months back in power, had done nothing to hinder Putin’s continued attacks on Ukraine. The US still shares intelligence with the troubled country and sells, via Europe, crucial weapons and ammunition, but there was never any pressure on Russia. See you Wednesday.
New sanctions
During the conversation with Rutte, new American sanctions were announced against Russian oil companies. Because of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to ending the war in Ukraine.” A second summit with Putin, which was supposed to take place in Budapest, had already been postponed because Trump “doesn’t want to waste time” on a potentially useless meeting. But Trump does not commit Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. He does not put his thumb further on the scale of the military battlefield.
The question is what concrete results have been achieved by Rutte’s flattery. Because as soon as he flies back to Brussels, he will no longer be the last person to have Trump’s ear about Ukraine. Who will the president speak to next? Vice President JD Vance is hostile to Ukraine and wants to cut back aid to the country. Scott Bessent, Minister of Finance, explicitly called for a ceasefire when announcing the oil sanctions.
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‘Cursing’ Trump pressured Zelensky on Friday to accept Russian terms, writes FT
Trump gets along well with the Russian president, but he also knows that Putin is playing a game with him. The relationship with the Ukrainian president is more difficult than it has been since Trump’s first term. But Zelensky, European allies and Republican senators have at least convinced the American president since he returned to power that it is not good if Ukraine is overrun and the Russians are on the Polish border.
Trade deals
There are a few things that Trump is sensitive to: trade deals that, in addition to EU countries, Russia and to a lesser extent Ukraine could offer him, the prospect of another peace to his name and an end to bloodshed and the killing of children, which his wife Melania seems to mainly appeal to him about. Rutte has credit, because he helped pledge that all NATO member states will spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense, but no new transaction is in the offing.
The next important player Trump will certainly speak to is Chinese President Xi Jinping. He will have the first meeting of his second term next week in South Korea. The Chinese leader can, if he wants, probably be more important than the volatile Trump in urging Putin to end the war. That just wouldn’t be good for Trump’s ego.
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