The Netherlands can be much greener in 25 years, both left and right, writes the PBL. The insight is mainly intended for the new cabinet. “This will help us overcome the administrative impasse, farmers will know where they stand, and there will be a politically stable course for agriculture and nature.”
The report assumes two scenarios. One with the use of technology, the other scenario has ‘nature inclusive’ as a starting point. “The final course that is chosen will be very decisive for the appearance of the rural area, for the position of Dutch nature and for the role of agriculture in the Netherlands.”
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In the technological scenario, technology is mainly used to make agriculture as clean as possible. Natural areas are expanded, managed and restored, and spatial planning is restored to agriculture and nature. In the nature-inclusive scenario, the emphasis is on more extensive forms of agriculture, fewer animals per hectare. This is more intertwined with nature through a broad application of agricultural nature management, and there will be a greater degree of circularity.
In this scenario, a large part of agricultural production remains
In concrete terms, this means that in the intensive technological scenario a large part of agricultural production will continue to exist, approximately one third of the agricultural area will be used in whole or in part for nature purposes. Because to achieve the goals, more space must be given to nature, regardless of which scenario is chosen.
So nature reserves will become larger, and cows will mainly be kept indoors, because nitrogen emissions can be reduced with stable technology. Only those companies that can recoup the extra costs for technology can continue to exist, which leads to accelerated economies of scale. The landscape will look more like what we know now, and how they farm in Denmark.
For most farmers, this scenario is far removed from what they are used to
In the nature-inclusive scenario, the agricultural sector will roughly halve in size and nature reserves will be added, but a third less than in the intensive-technological scenario. There will be more room for cultural history – more cows in the meadow – and it will lead to the recovery of populations of songbirds, insects and butterflies.
The landscape will be more similar to that of Austria and England. And because there is more natural pest control, farmers need to use fewer crop protection products. In this scenario, the livestock population will more than halve, and for most farmers business operations will be far removed from what they are currently used to. They must provide additional income, such as agricultural nature management, a nature campsite or selling regional products. This also makes them more dependent on subsidies.
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Regardless of the scenario, part of the agricultural land must be converted into nature. To achieve this in 25 years, the speed at which the government currently purchases land must increase by a factor of 4.
State Commission
According to the PBL, a state committee for agriculture, nature and the living environment could help determine the course, because they can bridge political differences. However, the researchers are clear. Something has to happen. “If the Netherlands does not make a choice, this will lead to recurring incidents. Continually failing to achieve legal goals, possibly more lawsuits, but above all the lack of stable and reliable policy.”