He arrived on the political scene with the promise of momentum and innovation. With his movement Tanora malaGasy Vonona — Young Determined Malagasy — TGV for short, he modeled himself on the French high-speed train: modern, unstoppable, always on the move. But sixteen years after his first seizure of power in Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina (51) seems to have been overtaken by history. As rumors of a military coup grew, the former DJ and businessman – who has led the island on the east coast of Africa as president since 2009 – was flown out of the country on a French military plane on Monday.
On Monday evening, Rajoelina spoke for the first time since his flight. From “a safe place” he called for “respect for the constitution” and rejected calls for resignation. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed concern about the situation in the country, but did not confirm Rajoelina’s evacuation.
Protesters demanded the departure of President Andry Rajoelina.
Photo Luis TATO AFP
Rajoelina’s departure follows weeks of protests in Madagascar. This started at the end of September as a protest against inadequate supplies of water and electricity and grew into a popular uprising against corruption, poverty and authoritarian government. Last weekend, the backlash – referred to as the “Gen Z uprising” – took a decisive turn. When the army’s powerful elite unit CAPSAT joined the demonstrators, Rajoelina’s authority was eroded. On Sunday he warned of a coup. A day later he was in a French plane bound for La Réunion.
After Col. Mickaël Randrianirina, the CAPSAT head, declared in a video message on Saturday that he was “answering the people’s call,” soldiers from his unit joined the crowds in the capital’s 13 May Square.
“It is positive that the army realizes that it can no longer support the repression,” Hony Rader, secretary general of the social umbrella organization Collectif des citoyens et des organizations citoyennes (CCOC), said by telephone. “But it is equally important that the army knows its place: as protector, as peacekeeper. It must help resolve the crisis without interfering in politics.”
Leader with no political experience
In 2009, Rajoelina seized power after weeks of mass protests against President Marc Ravalomanana, whom he accused of corruption and abuse of power. Rajoelina, then 34, suddenly became leader of the country, without elections or political experience.
After seizing power, Rajoelina, previously an ambitious entrepreneur and flamboyant mayor of Antananarivo, led a transitional regime that was barely recognized internationally. In 2014, he handed over power under pressure and moved to France. When he was declared eligible again in 2018, Rajoelina returned as a self-declared reformer. With the so-called treize velirano – thirteen promises – he wanted to pull Madagascar out of poverty with jobs, infrastructure and education. But in reality the economy stagnated and dependence on foreign aid grew. In 2022, more than three-quarters of the population lived below the national poverty line. Each new crisis — cyclones, pandemic, inflation — hit the population harder than the last.
According to Hony Rader, Secretary General of the CCOC, Madagascar has been in a vicious circle of political and economic crises since the Rajoelina era. His governing style, she says, was characterized by grand promises and a painful lack of action. “The fundamental problem is that he never understood that governing means meeting the basic needs of the people.”
Rajoelina loved cameras and spectacle. Whether it involved the construction of a grand amphitheater in the old king’s palace or a very expensive cable car costing 175 million euros above the capital: everything had to radiate the image of progress. He often appeared in ceremonial suits with high collars, scarves and cloaks reminiscent of the royal robes of the 19th century Merina dynasty, when Madagascar was still a kingdom.
According to political scientist Solofo Randrianja of the University of Toamasina, he tried to uphold the image of an exalted leader. “A classic populist,” says Randrianja, “who presented himself as a savior, the man who could do everything, who had a solution for everything. But in the end he did not deliver.”
Scandal after scandal
Businessman Mamy Ravatomanga, his confidant since 2009, grew into the influential but shadowy center of what political scientist Randrianja describes as a “political-financial mafia”. His name has cropped up repeatedly in corruption cases, and he was one of the main targets of protests in recent weeks until he fled the country.
Rajoelina had little patience for contradiction or substantive debate. During the corona pandemic, he promoted a self-invented herbal drink as a miracle cure against Covid-19. “Rajoelina wanted fans, not voters,” says Randrianja. “He had no vision for Madagascar. Just think: this is a man who thought that the arrival of KFC [de Amerikaanse kipfranchise] brought modernity to Madagascar. That was his idea of development: superficial, symbolic, without depth.”
In recent years, Rajoelina took power further and scandals followed. After it emerged in 2023 that he also had a French passport, the presidential elections of that year took place in an atmosphere of distrust and protest. The opposition saw a pre-cooked power struggle and boycotted the polls. That election was “the beginning of his downfall,” says historian and political scientist Solofo Randrianja. “From that moment on he faced a major legitimacy problem.”
An uncertain period is dawning for Madagascar. The first political reckonings are already emerging: houses of politicians are being destroyed in the suburbs of Antananarivo, while former allies of Rajoelina are suddenly distancing themselves from the regime they have supported for years on social media.
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