In the roller coaster of this peculiar electoral year the change operated in a single day was enough to confirm some presumptions and demystify others. Until Friday, September 19, reservations drain was accelerating on each wheel, evaporating US $ 1.1 billion. In the officials officials, which since September 7 played defensive, the most credible explanation was that of a political crisis for the fear of the “market” to a change of political sign that would sow the confusion and danger of ungovernability for the second half of the mandate of JAvier Milei. But for the government itself it was to generate a blow of effect by providing that every day the risk that was reflected in the screens would increase with the country’s risk rise, the fall of the Merval and, above all, the disappearance of the central reserves.
The turn. Scott Besenthe Secretary of the United States Treasury (a virtual Minister of Economy)which had already been in April of lightning in Buenos Aires when the agreement was announced with the International Monetary Fund, had an unusual prominence on Monday before opening the operations in the beaten financial market. With a tweet he explained what the spokesman had anticipated a while before Manuel AdorniBesent explained What was the support of the United States and the meaning of this move: a coin swap for US $ 20,000 million, a review of the debt of debts (in 2026 there are maturities for more than US $ 19,000 million and Washington has a voice and vote in the IMF) and direct more beneficial commercial agreements (a key fact in full customs war). As the economist and businessman explains Gustavo Lazzari, The sWAP implies that the Argentine government has US $ 20,000 million ‘available’, which moves the risks of default and not being able to respond to a run in the roof of the band, but does not imply payment of interests as long as there is no use of any section of the same”
The fact that the government first launched was that of the temporary removal of exports of agricultural products. The small print indicated that it was until October 31 or even CUbrir a quota of US $ 7,000 millionwhat happens first. On Wednesday night, Arca confirmed that the figure had been reached
The speed with which the main actors in the sector moved caught the attention to the link table, which immediately asked to attend to the deadline if another condition. In his message, the Treasury Secretary had referred to the measure as a “Tax Holiday” that could be translated as a temporary exemption, implying that it was what had neglected with the government as a counterpart of his contribution contant and sound. The researchers of IERAL FRANCUSSO and Lucero Tobias They estimate that with that amount achieved, the effect will be that internal prices converge with internationals, first time in decades without retentions for grains and derivatives but with a fiscal cost that will be Between 0.10% and 0.25% of GDPaccording to the “mix” of products. As a transitory effect, “it also improves agricultural profitability and the entry of currencies, but when temporary it generates uncertainty in producers and industries downstream,” they add.
For Lazzari, “Exchange rate úNico and zero withholdings are two powerful institutions that make the most competitive sector contribute all the necessary dollars ”, but in their opinion, the temporary measure implied an incentive to the liquidation of existing stocks, but it is not enough to encourage greater production.”
Early negotiation. This is just a sample of what will be put on the table from October 27: the “Service” to the economic program, as defined by the economist Esteban Domecq, President of the Invecq consultant because there is three “rescues” so that there were no countermarks in the plan: the money laundering, the agreement with the IMF and now the American lifeguard. But, he maintains, there are problems that must be solved from the results of the October elections, in which it will be verified with what support the government would count to make these changes to give a sustainability framework to a course. Domecq is one of those who maintain, unlike the official discourse, that the cause of the exchange debacle of the last month is not only a political aspect but that fired an economic inconsistency cut on a scenario of an emptied central bank and therefore lacking all “fire power” and in a stagnant economy for 15 years. An economy that has 15 years of stagnation. “At this price, the BCRA will not be able to accumulate reservations the necessary reserves,” he concludes.
For its part, Martín Rapetti, President of Balancesreflect that “One thing we have learned from this story is that a stable macroeconomy requires a central bank with many reserves and this is even more important for bimonetarious countries such as Argentina, Uruguay and Peru.” It indicates that they maintained reservations between 25% and 30% of GDP, while the Milei administration inherited a BCRA with negative reserves of US $ 11,000 million but that it could not vary almost two years later. “The rescue of the American treasure has to be used to start the path of accumulation of reserves; it will be a long path that we cannot divert”, Judgment.
Jorge Vasconcelos, Chief economist of IERAL It also emphasizes the role that a sanitized central bank and a non -distorted exchange rate meets a growth path. “It is not about manipulating the operation of the exchange market, it is about achieving the most appropriate balance so that real interest rates become a digit; Only in this way can stability and growth be reconciled ”, holds. To compare it, it calculates that the official exchange rate of last week, ($ 1,500) is similar in real terms to the first part of 2019, when the central reserves were stable around US $ 65,000 million and purchases of dollars of natural persons fluctuated in the first semester of 2019 around US $ 1.5 billion per month.
Crossed winds. While the Treasury push serves to scare away the ghosts of a exchange and economic collapse, the situation indicates that the economy entered into a growth plateau. In July, The monthly estimator Economic Activity (EMAE) of INDEC showed the third consecutive dissemination (-0.1%) with an interannual expansion of only 2.9%, accumulating a 1.5%drop compared to the peak. If the activity remains “ironed” until the end of the year, 2025 will close below 4% according to equilibrium estimates.
A fact that brings better perspectives comes, precisely, from the sectors that showed the best evolution: energy and mining, with a low impact on employment but very high in regional. The economist Salvador Vitelli, Research Director of Romano Group It emphasizes that the energy trade balance accumulates a US $ 7.2 billion surplus in the last 12 months, with a positive result in August, for example US $ 750 million. The challenge for the aforementioned “Service” is to include all this variety of positive and negative data in perspective to avoid the triumphalism of short legs and the patches that eternalize the emergency.
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