The President Javier Milei He presented the 2026 budget project, one of the key pieces of his management and, in many ways, a political declaration rather than a simple plan. Unlike its usual interventions loaded with confrontation, this time the president sought to transmit serenity, give signs to the markets and, above all, send a message to society and the congress that “the worst already happened.”
The tone of the speech caught the attention: Milei talked about consensus, thanked the temper of the Argentines and even show that the hardness of the initial adjustment had eroded part of the social support. ANDThe reverse suffered in the Buenos Aires elections in early September operated as a turning point, and the budget became the platform to show a strategic turn. Without abandoning his dogma of fiscal balance, the president sought to soften the narrative, reinforce the expense in sensitive areas and hold bridges towards governors and legislators.
The cornerstone of the economic plan. The core of the project remains the same: the balance of public accounts. Milei repeated it several times: “It is not a whim, it is the definitive solution to the problems of Argentina.” The budget foresees a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2026 and a 0.3% financial surplus after the payment of interest.
However, the data did not go unnoticed: that goal is less demanding than that agreed with the International Monetary Fund, which set a primary surplus of 2.2% for the same year. SAnd I understand that the government chose to relax the commitment to the IMF to be able to increase social items and maintain certain transfers, A decision that could be read as a recognition that the original program was difficult to fulfill without major sacrifices in terms of social assistance.
In parallel, the budget projects an economic growth of 5% in 2026 and a strong slowdown in inflation: 24.5% in 2025, only 10.1% in 2026 and a descending path up to 3.7% in 2028. Tan estimate of the official exchange rate is also included: $ 1,325 in December 2025 and $ 1,423 at the end of 2026, A nominal adjustment less than inflation, which would imply a greater real appreciation of the weight.
Private consultants, however, distrust official optimism. Projections of market expectations survey They foresee the dollar around $ 1,600 in August 2026well above the budget pattern. And regarding growth, they point out that to reach 5.4% estimated in 2025 the economy should accelerate strongly in the last months of the year, something that contrasts with the signs of stagnation already visible.
Social concessions and political signals. One of the most striking features of the 2026 budget is the increase in social areas, in apparent contradiction with the logic of the adjustment. Milei announced a real increase of 17% in health, 8% in education, reinforcements for universities by 4.8 billion pesos, and a 5% increase in retirement and pensions for disability. The President defended these measures as part of the strategy of prioritizing “human capital”, although in practice they also function in response to opposition criticisms and loss of social support.
The project also includes a 105% increase in Contributions of the National Treasury (ATN)discretionary funds that are turned to the provinces. After vetoing a law that sought to distribute them automatically, Milei tries to recover initiative and hold a bridge with the governors, many of whom question the paralysis of public works and the lack of transfers.
However, not all measures go in the same direction. The budget proposes to repeal the automatic mobility of family assignments, which would leave its update in the hands of the Executive, and limit the subsidies to gas in cold areas to the benefited historical regions, excluding the provinces incorporated in 2021.
Governance and electoral horizon. Beyond the figures, the presentation of the budget was a political gesture. Milei chose a conciliatory tone, avoided insults to legislators and governors and spoke of “working side by side” to reach consensus. A word that is not usually part of its repertoire appeared twice in the speech: consensus.
The strategy has a clear explanation: in October legislative elections are held and the ruling needs to improve its position in Congress. After almost two years of management without having an approved budget law – so that the previous projects were withdrawn or extended by decree – the government now seeks to achieve parliamentary support for its economic plan.
The message, then, was triple: to the markets, to reaffirm the continuity of the fiscal balance; To society, to convey that the hardest stage has already passed; and to Congress, to invite to negotiate on the basis of fiscal discipline. The reaction was disparate: while the toughest opposition flatly rejected presidential optimism, some moderate sectors valued the change of tone and promised to analyze the project.
Between economy and politics. The 2026 budget synthesizes the central tension of the Milei government. On the one hand, it maintains fiscal orthodoxy as an unnegotiable flag. On the other, he acknowledges that he needs gestures towards society and politics to sustain governance. The result is a project that combines increases in social items, optimistic macroeconomic projections and an unpublished call to consensus.
In short, Milei tries to show himself as a president who learned from his stumbling and who is willing to “lower a change” without giving up his vision of fiscal discipline. The challenge will be to turn those promises into realities.
*Sergio Rodríguez Glowinski is an economist, director of Ingeco Argentina and stock market agent in the United States.
By Sergio Rodríguez Glowinski
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