An emblematic American film of the seventies, directed by Boorman, called Deliverance, was known, for these latitudes, as “violence is in us.” It is an exploration of how limit situations make completely hostile aspects of personality and how thin it can become the line that separates the civilization of barbarism.
Sometimes, admitting to the networks, or simply being attentive to the surrounding reality in everyday life, one feels levels of aggression compatible to extreme situations. But, thank God, we are not at war. We worry about the Bulling Infant or detent teenage reactions, without Keep in mind that there are many adults who have lost tolerance, respect and good ways.
Order and disorder. As explained Giuliano da Empoli In his book “The engineers of chaos” It was detected that anger and violence mobilize voters very effectively, who feel much more identified with anger than with conciliatory messages. In turn, the algorithms of the networks enhance polarization, reaffirming each group in their convictions and avoiding any type of reconsideration or openness towards other looks. Confirmation bias (the cognitive tendency that leads us to interpret information so that it confirms our beliefs) impacts negatively on critical analysis.
Thus, it seems that, for the construction and subsequent conquest of power, conflict and violence (in verbal principle), they pay much more than the moderation. According to the author, to achieve votes it is more efficient to appeal to the feeling (heart), than to reason (brain). And within the emotional palette, anger and anger have more electoral effectiveness than serenity….
But what is good for politics, may not necessarily be good for the economy. Because? Because if there is a variable that appeals to extreme rationality and the predictability derived from calm, that variable is the investment.
The investment allows to increase the capital stock, or fixed reproducible assets (machinery, tools and other durable goods used in the production process). The concept of investment also includes investment in constructions and variations, desired or not, of inventories, being one of the determining factors in the process of economic growth and employment creation. The growth of the capital stock in an economy depends not only on the opportunity cost of capital (interest rate), but also on the expectations possessed by economic agents on the future. That is why investment is very sensitive to changes in macroeconomic and institutional conditions, both local and international. Direct investment must be differentiated from the so -called financial or portfolio investment, which includes transactions in capital participation titles and debt titles. The latter, due to the ease of entry and exit, and for the speed required for decision making, although it has a strongly analytical background, it is more permeable to generalized euphoria.
At home. While it can be growing based on the dynamics of consumption (Argentina several times), if the investment is not expanded, the result will be the inflationary pressures derived from the displacement of aggregate demand. And if to avoid this, we decided to increase imports, we will generate greater currency drainage.
Argentina has a long history of low investment ratio in relation to GDP which, taking a 20 -year -old series is around 16.4%. It is estimated that only to replenish the existing capital, a 15.5 % of GDP. Only to have a reference, for the same period the rate for Paraguay was 19%, that of Spain 22.6%and that of South Korea, 28.7%.
Direct investments are the product of decisions that try to be rational, since what is at stake is the capital and the profitability of the same over time. It is a process in which who analyzes the investment, is generally different from the owner of capital (who has many alternatives, even leaving money in financial instruments) so he always has to give many explanations. The decision to invest emerges, in general, after a rigorous analytical process in which the main variables considered are: the amount to be invest, the expected income, the risk to be assumed, the times involved, the tax aspects, the opportunity cost and legal certainty derived from institutional solidity.
Consumption appeals to the sensory and the immediacy of desire. To do this, advertising directly impacts our senses, or commercial strategies are designed so that, while the supermarket is rejoiced in search of yogurt, I want to something that I do not need, but I like it. On the contrary, the investment crosses the multiple scrutiny of rationalities formed to find the fissure in the hypothesis contained in the proposal. And for this dynamic, the continuous clashes, even among those who in the background support the same, do not help. And it’s not just a problem problem. It is background. Institutions and business climate are not an irrelevant issue, they are the frame of reference that allows millionaire decisions to be made.
The regimes to promote large investments are capital mobilizers, but in principle they achieve the accession of companies linked to scarce natural resources, which, in general, are accustomed to taking political and institutional risks because they cannot choose the place of the site.
It is very important that these great investments are promoted, but we must also create the conditions and compete for those that can be based in one geography or another, because they are independent of natural resources to extract. In addition, growth and employment are not only explained by large investments, but also by the multiplicity of small and medium -sized investments, which give the economy vitality and innovation.
Very important victories such as the drastic reduction of inflation with its consequent impact on the drop in the poverty index, monetary system, and improvement in safety and order in the street were achieved so far. All are not only necessary conditions but essential. And from these achievements you have to take some more steps. The reforms of labor, pension laws, and regimes such as public works, among others, require consensus and joint work. It is very important to also summon professionals with relevant technical capacity, regardless of the party to which they are affiliated.
There are many who fervently want our country to prosper, that this time is different from many previous ones in which, in the words of Gerchunoff and Llach we pass from the illusion to disenchantment. And that is why, from different areas, fundamental opinions are provided, sometimes in years of academic work, sometimes in experience in the field.
Passions, feelings and aggression may be effective to achieve votes, win elections, promote purchases or fill football stadiums. But it is definitely not what works to convince a directory to invest.
*Alicia Caballero is an economist, former director of the BNA and former Decana of the Faculty of Economic Sciences (UCA).
By Alicia Caballero
