The phrase is attributed to José Luis Espert and reflects the mood that reigns in the libertarian camp: “I screwed up the campaign”, they say that the head of the list of the candidates for the Chamber of Deputies in Buenos Aires land. It is that the elections are just around the corner and the panorama paints badly: it is just starting – and nobody knows where it ends – the scandal of the coimas of up to 800 thousand dollars per month that would go at the hands of the president’s sister, Karina Milei, and that the official Diego Spagnuolo mentions in his audios. Can you alter the result of that affair that affair? Is it what political consultants usually describe as a black swan, that is, an unexpected event that changes everything?
The answer is not simple because knowing who could benefit from this scenario. But surveys are eloquent. There is one of the projection consultant that says that three out of ten respondents who identified with freedom progress could rever his vote after coimagate, a very important bleeding. The Management & Fit consultant throws a lower figure, but equally worrying: 16 percent of the consultations that were said libertarians will not vote the lists of Javier Milei in the next elections. While other polls also talk about a sensitive decline in the image of the president, who located about 50 percent before the scandal and now see about 10 to 15 points below. All shocking numbers.
The million -dollar question – or 800 thousand dollars – is who capitalizes that downturn of the ruling party. Because in the Peronist opposition they would not seem to be in the ideal conditions of giving a discussion about corruption in the state, and much from the balcony of a house prison. Cristina Kirchner’s condemnation not only the electoral disabled, but makes her a meme when she tries to point out others.
So who could benefit from the bleeding of libertarian votes? A former President Presa? Or perhaps a space as little fired as that of the new media avenue that the governors have just formed? Does leather give them so little about its premiere? What if no one wins with the decomposition of the government?
A hypothesis that analysts do not rule out is that, as in the elections that there was already this year in different districts, absenteeism is that the victory is taken: it was close to the 50 points – a triumph in the first round if it was a presidential – in elections such as that of the city of CABA in April, and perhaps that was not the roof. What if the most recent disenchanted mileisms go to swell those ranks? The phenomenon that the pollsters see is that of a broad social strip that could have voted to Milei in 2023 but that, drowned by the adjustment and the endless recession, today is no longer represented by him, although he refuses to return to the past K. Then, already without options they consider valid, they decide to stay in their home. They prefer not to participate.
It will be necessary to see, then, if the damage that the case of the coimas inflicts the government ends up benefiting other spaces of the system or if, on the contrary, it will deepen the crack between politics and the millions of Argentines who no longer vote.
In the second case, we would be talking about an even more black swan.
