Trump’s attitude towards Moscow seems to be completely changed again in a week. After two ultimatums and threats of tightened sanctions against Russia, he invites President Vladimir Putin to Alaska this Friday. Here they would talk about the war that Moscow wages against neighboring Ukraine, and who cost tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
The American president hinted on a redistribution of Ukrainian areas. “It’s very complex. We’re going to [territorium] get back, and we’re going to trade. Some territory will be exchanged, to improve [zowel Oekraïne als Rusland]”Trump said in the White House on Friday.
In retrospect, Trump’s false movements appear: the resumption of arms deliveries to Ukraine and the possibility of “devastating” sanctions against Russia as Putin would not show that he was serious about peace. The sanctions would be established last Friday – but are still not yet available. One day before the deadline, the American proposal came to host a top meeting with the warring presidents Zensky and Putin.
The Kremlin jumped Haasje -Over that proposal and presented a meeting between only Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump – without Zensky. After the White House Morde for a moment that there could not be talking without Zensky, an invitation was nevertheless on the table.
The Ukrainian President Zensky, who was for a trilateral meeting, warned on social media that talking about Ukraine without Ukraine makes no sense. “Decisions made without Ukraine are decisions against peace,” said Zensky. “Those are stillborn decisions. Unworkable decisions.”
Alaska
At first glance, Alaska seems like a controversial location for the meeting. It is not a neutral place, as the United Arab Emirates proposed by Putin are. In addition, Russian ultranationalists periodically recycle the idea that the American state belongs to Russia. The offer could even be conceived by them as a provocation.
But apparently there are enough reasons for the Kremlin to believe that Putin is waiting for a warm welcome in Alaska. The Kremlin agreed within a few hours. Several Russia analysts have pointed out for some time that Putin believes that Trump can help achieve his military goals without fighting further.
Trump does not seem averse to that. The American envoy Steve Witkoff would lobby with European allies for a two -phase plan in which Ukraine first withdraws from the provinces of Loehansk and Donetsk. This was apparent from conversations of anonymous European dignitaries with The Wall Street Journal.
Ukraine defends several cities and many settlements in that area. More than 100,000 Ukrainian citizens live in the cities of Slovjansk and Kramatensk.
In phase two, negotiations would be made on the ‘definitive peace’. It is not clear how much value must be attached to the two -phase plan. The German medium Bild On Saturday, based on Ukrainian government sources, Witkoff may have misunderstood the Russian proposal in Moscow on Wednesday – and that Putin also wants Ukrainian withdrawal from the southern provinces of Cherson and Zaporizja. Witkoff would have thought that Russia would withdraw from that area itself – which would mean a kind of exchange.
On Friday, another plan leaked out through other sources. It was about freezing the file line along the current front line. A truce – no peace. And for that new situation, sanctions against Russia would be lifted.
So there is nothing certain about what is on the table now. That may be a wish of Moscow: “To approach the solution of the issue peacefully, it is necessary to have detailed conversations. Not in public, but in peace, in the silence of the negotiation process,” said Vladimir Putin last week in a conversation with his Belarusian colleague Aleksandr Loekashenko.
If it actually comes to a presidential top consultation, that is already a big victory for Putin. The last time an American president agreed with him was Joe Biden in June 2021. The Russian president became very isolated internationally after his decision to invade Ukraine at the beginning of 2022.
There is still an ICC arrest warrant against Putin, which makes state visits difficult. The US does not have to comply with this: it helped set up the International Criminal Court and signed the statute of Rome, but did not ratify that. Under Trump, the attitude towards the ICC is downright hostile.
However, the choice for Alaska may have to do with the arrest warrant: the Beringstraat between the US and Russia is only 3.2 kilometers at its narrowest point. Putin can go there directly and does not have to avoid the airspace of ICC countries.
Ukrainian reactions
In the meantime, Ukraine is craving peace. An opinion poll last week showed that 69 percent of Ukrainians prefer peace negotiations to fight further. Yet an equally large proportion of the respondents believe that such a peace file is unlikely within twelve months. And almost three -quarters of the Ukrainians reject the American moder for this.
Although many Ukrainians realize that the area occupied by Russia can no longer be recaptured militarily, legally giving up the area is too far from the area. In addition to the constitutional and international-law problems that this causes, Ukrainians believe that such a reward will only encourage Russia to fight further. Not to mention the consequences for citizens: Russia controls the occupied Ukrainian area in a repressive way and according to the law of the strongest.
“The Russians are still refusing to stop murders, still invest in the war, and are still holding stuck to ‘exchanging’ Ukrainian territory for Ukrainian territory,” Zelensky wrote on X. Russia on Saturday afternoon on the negotiations would be demanding on ‘conditions that do not guarantee a more favorable position for Russia’.
Ukrainians establish more hope for the EU and look questioningly at Europe. In an attempt to forge unity, Zensky called government leaders on Saturday. He already received diplomatic support from French President Emmanuel Macron, the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal.
“If boundaries can be adjusted with violence, nothing is safe … Sovereignty and territorial integrity are the cornerstones of global stability,” said Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Margus Tsahkna.
But is the European response not a little late? Sam Green, professor at the Russia Institute of London King’s College, sets online: “It now seems that Ukraine and Europe will be confronted with exactly the kind of Faustian deal they have since [Trumps aantreden in] February afraid of. The fact that Europe has not acted in the past six months to block such a deal is a lack of leadership and diplomacy. “
In the United Kingdom, consultations from the US, Europe and Ukraine were still taking place on Saturday. Zensky’s Staff Chef Andri Jermak, among others, were present, and the American Vice President JD Vance. Afterwards the Wall Street Journal That the governments of, among others, Germany, France and United Kingdom reject the Russian peace proposal. The European countries are said to have drawn up their own framework for peace, but details have not been made public.
It will still have to be seen whether the United States indeed interpreted the Russian intentions, or whether Trump hopes to force the Ukrainians to force a deal anyway. The chance that there is again an intermediate step. Ultimately, only the Ukrainians can decide for themselves whether they give up without a struggle. And they currently answer unambiguously no.