The charm of the playoffs is the best time for the value tournament. Norway and Italy may offer a fairly equitable thriller. The match is also of interest.
In the first quarter of the women’s European Championship, Norway and Italy will meet.
The most interesting game of the day
The semi-finals of the women’s European Championships will start with two traditional football homes. Question marks have risen in both of them: Norway is seeking his gameplay identity and leans firmly on individuals, while Italy relies on controlled by a tight structure.
The block phase of both was uneven in tone, but the sequel eventually came off in a controlled manner. Now the stakes are rising and the movement is reduced – especially in terms of errors.
The downstairs of Norway is hit by a significant crack when the left top of the top has been operated in the role of the left Marit Bratberg Lund is on the sidelines due to the ban. His absence directly affects Norway’s game opening, as the left -footed topper brings a natural angle to opening inputs. Without him, the Norwegian Ground floor loses balance and the ability to build a depth game from the left. Alternative tops bring more defense certainty to the counter than ball initiative.
Italy has not tinted, but has taken the necessary results. The team’s way of playing is based on an organized form of defense, where the distance between four defenders and two defensive midfielders is constantly controlled.
Italy presses less frequently from high. Instead, it guides the game to the sides and forces an opponent to unfavorable attempts. The downtown defense has been one of the most intense of the tournament: Italy has released only 0.7 XG per match (Norway 1.2) and most opponents’ shots have left outside the box. This structure will inevitably direct the Norwegian game towards the edges.
Italy wants control that allows you to take advantage of ball control without constant risk -taking. The attack -headed individuals are found further afield, but solutions often arise from slow construction and situations through the edges.
Norway is actively taking advantage of its edges anyway. Ingrid Engen and in a free role playing Caroline Graham Hansen constructed in the middle area, but progress is often taken from the sides where Guro in the thigh and Frida Leonhardsen-Maanum seek to challenge one against one -in -situations. Italy, on the other hand, protects the route leading to the box and strives to keep the inside of the penalty area as congestion. This forces Norway to continue to the edges even in the last third.
Norway is seeking rhythm changes, but the fluctuating performance of the group phase arouses question marks. Ada Hegerberg That danger to the box, but the press structure around him has remained uneven and there have been challenges in the midfield, especially in the midfield. Norway wants to keep the ball, but is prone to exploitative counter -attacks – especially without Lund’s support. This gives Italy the opportunity to build a match through its own area of strength: wait, protect the center and hit controlled interruptions.
The anticipated image of the match refers to the slow rhythm and mutual caution. Italy does not want to open the center, and Norway cannot break through it, at least not often. The edges are the only open areas, but utilizing them requires constant doubling and recycling the ball. Of course, the opening paint changes the rhythm of the game quickly, but without it, the balance may remain for a long time. During the first episode, both teams have mainly controlled risks in their previous matches and searched for advances in moderation.
The last encounters of the teams have been steady and a really smooth game is expected this time. Norwegian individuals are top level, but is Norway still as great as the sum of their parts? Italy’s defense play has been more uneven than expected.
I estimate the Italian marginal favorite position, with a probability distribution of 34-29-37 %. There is something to play with these estimates – a little lower of them. In terms of the number of goals, there is a clear rely in the low -end direction. For less than 2.5 goals, my estimate is 60 % (border factor 1.67). The Veikkaus coefficient 1.65 is therefore not enough for games.
The match starts at 10 pm.
The best bet of the day
Indeed, the rhythm and control of the quarter -finished game are likely to rise in the direction of Italy, but the qualitative threat and the surprise through speed goes to Norway. The tactical frame favors midfield tightness and the center of the center, but Norwegian top individuals are able to solve otherwise difficult games.
Veikkaus really prices Italy to be a clearer favorite than I do. The direct win offers a bigger odds and a nice expectation, but the quarter -finished setting invites a handicap where the stake returns with a draw. Veikkaus gives Norway +0 a coefficient of 2.28. When my own estimate for this event is 48 surfaces (limit factor 2.08), the value is quite comfortable. The stamp of the official game recommendation on top.
The match starts at 22.00.
Games of the day: Norway – Italy 1, Asian handicap +0 (odds 2.28)
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