News item | 11-07-2025 | 16:00
18one Advice Study Group Budget Space
The Netherlands stands for large tasks that ask for choices aimed at the long term. The costs of aging and defense rise and more policy is needed for climate goals. In addition, the nitrogen problems and the home assignment have an impact on society and economy. All this requires choices in the distribution of prosperity between now and later, the Study Group Budget Space (SBR) states in the report ‘The future is now starting ‘. In view of the preservation of healthy public finances and broad prosperity, the SBR advises a saving of 7 billion euros towards 2030. This keeps the debt stable and the next cabinet is doing its share in keeping the finances healthy. A statement of 7 billion offers sufficient distance to the European limit value of the budget deficit (-3% GDP), so that it is not necessary to intervene in the meantime. New policy, such as additional expenditure on Defense, must be covered additionally.
The study group notes that the next cabinet should make choices in different areas in scarcity: financially, on the labor market, in the physical space and in the room for nitrogen and CO2 emissions. These choices put pressure on prosperity and have a direct influence on people’s lives. That is why prioritization is needed: in the short term not everything can be done at the same time and in the long term, public finances will be under pressure. When making choices, it is important to consider both the budget and broad prosperity in society.
Budget anchors
The study group bases the statement of 7 billion euros for the coming cabinet term on two ‘budget anchors’: stabilizing the national debt and a budget deficit with a sufficient distance to the European limit value of -3% of the gross domestic product (GDP). If politics embraces the advice, the shortage in 2030 will amount to -2% GDP. This offers room for trend budget policy, which means that additional measures are not needed immediately with economic headwinds. Because such measures often have consequences for people in the Netherlands.
A new cabinet can reduce the budget deficit by 7 billion by reducing expenditure or via taxes. In addition, the study group mainly recommends measures that reinforce public finances in the long term, such as reforms of aging -sensitive expenditure. This is possible, for example, by limiting rising spending in healthcare and social security. In addition, the study group advises a shift from burden on work to tax on consumption, capital and assets.
Toadpad
Due to the rising aging costs, the Netherlands does not meet the long-term expenditure path from the European budget rules (Stability and Growth Pact). The study group considers it wise that each cabinet picks up a part of the bill to meet this in the long term. If later cabinets also conform to this, the debt remains stable and long-term challenges such as the costs of the aging population are gradually fitted. The advice to save 7 billion euros in the coming period is a significant first step.
Defense
The Netherlands has committed itself to the new NATO standard. It is up to the new cabinet to determine what a realistic path is to grow to 3.5% of GDP (pure defense spending) in 2035. The study group advises to structurally cover new expenses from both other expenses and taxes. This is additional to the statement of 7 billion. If coverage comes from sensible reforms that will yield more in the long term, it is defensible to take more time for coverage – as long as the government actually enters these measures.
Longer -term
The number of elderly people in the Netherlands, and therefore the aging costs, will continue until after 2040. In addition, the Defense budget will continue to increase after 2030 as the Netherlands works towards the new NATO standard in 2035. The costs of climate change and CO2 reduction will also work for a long time. These future costs make it extra important that a new cabinet will get started with this. Otherwise these accounts will shift. The perspective of broad prosperity must be central. It is important that policy, and measuring its results, are focused on all aspects of prosperity and well -being, the study group emphasizes. Economic growth and material prosperity are an important part of this.
About the Budget Space Study Group
Prior to parliamentary elections, the study group Budget space advises politics on the budget objective, the budget policy and the budgetary rules. With this independent advice, political parties and the new cabinet can make a good assessment of the financial policy to be pursued. The SBR has been around since 1971. “The future is now starting ‘ Is it 18one Advice. The study group is traditionally chaired by the Secretary General of the Ministry of Finance and consists of the director of the Central Planning Bureau, the President of the Nederlandsche Bank and High officials of various ministries (AZ, BZK, EZ, Fin, SZW and VWS). The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the Social and Cultural Planning Office have an advisory role.