How long can the bull market still carry? These sectors provide an early warning signal for the end of the bull market.
• Experts disagree: how far can the rally go?
• These sectors signal the end of the bull market
• keep an eye on risks
Bullenmarkt stops – experts at the disaster
The billionaire Leon Cooper recently commented on the US stock market: In the face of geopolitical uncertainties and high ratings, he predicts a “very conservative” development for S&P 500. 02.07.2025).
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, sees the situation much more relaxed: he considers an increase in the S&P 500 to up to 6,500 points by the end of the year.
Former Pimco boss Bill Gross is currently only seeing limited potential in the financial markets. In a contribution on the platform X, the investor, known as “Bond King”, carefully expressed itself optimistic for shares – and rather skeptical for bonds.
For ten-year US state bonds, a yield level of around 4.25 percent expects. Factors such as the high budget deficit, a growing bond offer and a weaker US dollar, on the other hand, speak that inflation permanently drops below 2.5 percent – and thus the returns are permanently lower.
On the other hand, the stock market sees a little upwards, supported by the AI boom. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, he expects moderate economic growth of one to two percent. His conclusion: “A small bull market for stocks, a small bear market for bonds – nothing dramatic.”
Long-Term Research Indicates US 10 Year Has Traded at CPI Plus 175.
With inflation at 2.5% that PUTS A 10 year at 4.25% or so.
That was History – But Deficits/Ensuing Supply of Bonds/and a Weak Dollar Should Keep CPI from Falling Below 2.5% and the 10 years from Falling …
– Bill Gross (@Real_bill_Goss) June 24, 2025
These sectors show when the bull market ends
According to Marketwatch, an analysis of the relative strength of various industries indicates that the end of the current bull market could be at least three months away. The evaluation is based on data from Ned Davis Research on the typical sector development in the final phase of earlier bull markets since 1970.
Accordingly, there are currently no clear signs of a market tip: the traditionally weak spaetzel sectors – communication services, energy and supplier – rank in the middle of the relative strength. At the same time, the typical winners at the end of a bull market are surprisingly weak, such as basic consumption goods, non-basis consumption goods and healthcare.
The analysis of the relative sector strength provides important information, but is only a partial aspect of the overall view – and not a guarantee for a continuation of the bull market.
Nevertheless, this method has already proven to be useful in the past two years. In several cases – for example in April and August 2023 and in April 2024 – the sector trends indicated a continuing market thickness. In retrospect, this assessment was correct.
And from an economic point of view, the pattern is also understandable: In the expectation of an economic weakening, investors tend to reject the defensive industries such as consumer goods or healthcare – a behavior that has not yet been recognizable.
Is one more last stopper following?
However, the technical analyst Tom McClellan warns of premature euphoria. “The current calm is deceptive – it signals a tense location that could soon unload,” McClellan told CNBC.
Investors should therefore prove patience, keep an eye on risks and not be guided by short -term optimism – the big upswing could still be long in coming.
Editor finance.net
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