Advantage Pogacar before the duel with Vingegaard around the tour

The Slovenian defending champion Tadej Pogacar is the five-star favorite of the world’s largest bike race. His Danish competitor Jonas Vingegaard mainly relies on the long climbs in the Alps – but that could be too little.

The Mittellatinian noun “Duellum” means what is to be expected in the Tour de France this summer: duel. In the narrower sense of the word, however, this means a voluntary discussion with the same, nevertheless potentially fatal weapons in order to carry out honor disputes between the two opponents in an archaic way. The attacks that Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard are likely to be able to deliver at the largest bike race in the world are not to be done as part of their duel. However, the organizers of the tour definitely hope that the two cycle cycling with the same power.

However, the Slovenian Pogacar, 26 years old, seems to be ahead of all its opponents with his unbridled aggressiveness and his impressive list of success of 99 victories in six and a half World Tour years with his UAE team Emirates. In any case, Pogacar dominated this spring, while Vingegaard, now 28, held back significantly more.

This was also due to the fact that the Danish captain of the Dutch selection Visma – Lease A Bike fell in March in the course of the fifth stage of Paris -Nice in March and took away a concussion, which was very difficult for him. Vingegaard only showed up again at the Dauphiné tour in June, where he met his eternal opponent Pogacar, among other things – and was subject to him. But Vingegaard is also an excellent tour driver, with regard to victories on the tour, it is 2: 3 from the Dänen perspective. Can he create the big coup this year and place 3: 3? Or does Pogacar take the lead 4-2? An analysis.

Starting position

Pogacar travels to tour as a high-decorated spring champion. He won two of the four four-held monuments of cycling-the Flanders Tour and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, in the classic Pogacar style as a wide-roped soloist. Only with Milan Remo (third place for Pogacar) and his professional debut at Paris-Roubaix (second place) he lost to the Dutch classic specialist Mathieu van der Poel. At the Dauphiné, an important form check before the tour, Pogacar amazed with three day victories and the clear overall victory in front of Vingegaard.

The Dane, in turn, won the Algarve tour in February before he had to give up at Paris-Nice. At the Dauphiné, he finished second in four out of eight stages, three times behind his Nemesis Pogacar. So it was also in the final account of the strong tour.

Conclusion: Advantage pogacar.

Current form

At the Dauphiné, Pogacar convinced as a machine in the mountains and even as a sprinter on the first section. However, the initiative previously assumed Vingegaard at the last climb, but Pogacar was able to counter this advance. However, Pogacar surprisingly revealed weaknesses in the Auvergne in the 17.4 kilometer short, hilly time trial of the Dauphiné. The Belgian Remco Evenepoel won that, and he is also a candidate for the tour in the jam of a secret favorite. Evenepoel was 20 seconds faster than Vingegaard. The daily Pogacar was 48 seconds slower than Evenepoel.

This distance was very surprised by Pogacar, he then emphasized that he would analyze his gap in the fight against the clock in the fading time until the tour of the tour and would expect a few additional time trial units. And yet: Pogacar convinced as an ice-cold attacker, especially in the three mountain stages on the final Dauphiné weekend, who could not follow Vingegaard.

The sports show said Pogacar on the penultimate day of the Dauphiné: “It should be difficult for me to climb even better than in this race. If my shape stays that way, I am well prepared.”

Vingegaards Dauphiné conclusion is also positive. The sports show said: “I can be very happy about my performance. Tadej was just stronger than me at the moment. But my wattage values ​​were convincing. I stay calm because I know that this race does better here. It served as a training for the tour.”

Conclusion: Advantage pogacar.

The route

This Tour de France appears to be moderate, but on the first nine stages in France’s north it has deliberately integrated falls in the course in the form of poisonous climbs in the final. The favorites will have to be very attentive there, and it is not unlikely that the hyperactive pogacar will treat itself to a few attacks in the first tours. The 10th stage leads through the French volcano, in the central massif it will be shown for the first time how good the shape of the dueling Pogacar and Vingegaard is really on the tour.

With very long and steep climbs, however, Vingegaard showed in his tours in 2022 and 2023 that he can conquer Pogacar. This time four such stages are integrated into the second half of the tour. One of them leads to Mont Ventoux, another through the Pyrenees, it ends in Superbagnères and has 5,048 meters of altitude. On the fourth and fifth last day of the tour there are two more violent exams in the Alps – the mountain arrivals on the huge Col de la Loze and in La Plagne. On two days in a row, the tour participants have to complete almost 5,800 and then again a good 4,800 meters of altitude.

Conclusion: Advantage Vingegaard

Driver types

Pogacar is an instinct driver who doesn’t think much of his team leadership. Rather, he drives according to feeling and decides that the eternal reference size Eddy Merckx is not unlike attacking far before the finish. They are usually so well balanced that hardly anyone can follow. On the tour of the Flanders, at Liège-Bastogne-Liège or at the Dauphiné, this could be observed again this year. But also with the Giro d’Italia and the tour last year. There Pogacar won the overall ranking and six stages.

Vingegaard, on the other hand, is a cool calculator that is based on the knowledge of training science and who entrusted himself to the advice of his trainers. Vingegaard will not risk daring attacks, which forbids him his reserved nature and its orientation to the programs imposed on him. His Visma team is considered the avant-garde of training and nutrition control, Vingegaard is the model student of this concept.

But Pogacar’s path last proved to be the more successful. His courage led him to his tour triumph in 2020, 2021 and 2024.

Conclusion: Advantage pogacar.

psychology

Pogacar is on the way to becoming one of the most iconic drivers of cycling history. He reads races differently than his competitors, he is probably the most offensive winner in the peloton. His motto is: Better try everything but to be beaten afterwards anyway.

Vingegaard, on the other hand, is much more defensive in its entire appearance. He likes to be shielded and reserved. Large sayings, announcements or daring maneuvers in the races are strange to him. Sometimes he lacks a pinch of pogacar in this regard.

Conclusion: Advantage pogacar.

team

In Vingegaards tour successes, the cool-calculating, with outstanding drivers, was the top team of the field. Vingegaard was supported by Primoz Roglic, Sepp Kuss and Wout van Aert. In the meantime, Giro winner Simon Yates replaces Roglic, who was immigrated to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. This combination represents absolute world class.

In the meantime, however, the UAE team not only opened up to the Dutch, but even trumped them in relation to Pogacar’s mountain and helper fleet. Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates, the twin brother of the Giro winner, Pavel Sivakov and also the speed garden Nils Politt and Tim Wellens are the most sought-after names in the world of cycling. In total, this contingent is currently the best in the field.

Conclusion: Advantage pogacar.

forecast

Above all, his currently outstanding form, his sense, his understanding of racing and his desire to attack the attack clearly for Pogacar before this tour. Vingegaard will put everything on the Alps. That could be too little, especially since Pogacar will certainly not be relocated there.