The most recent information shows that 1578 companies have registered for the ‘wildly attractive’ termination scheme. The question is how many farmers actually participate. The ministry itself assumes a participation of 65%. Since this year, farmers have also had to deal with the skipping of animal and phosphate rights at trade. This has been introduced to ensure that the manure production ceiling is not exceeded.
‘Meat sector has to work to solve problems’
Pig farming
The bank expects a decrease in herd between 15 and 18% to 2030 by this policy. ,, We expect the strongest decrease in pig farming (-16%), and poultry (-13%). For dairy cattle and calf farming, a contraction of 8% and 11% respectively is assumed. ” According to sector expert Jelmer Schreurs, the contraction of the livestock is the strongest in the year 2025 and 2026.
The bank estimates that the structural decrease also brings less money for the Dutch economy. Yet the decrease is only limited if it is placed in perspective. “That is equal to 8% of the agricultural sector and only 0.15% of the entire Dutch economy,” says Schreurs. In particular, other companies in the agriculture and mixing feed sector will be confronted with drop -out. “But also the energy sector, machine builders and veterinarians will be confronted with lost income. Further in the chain, the food industry will get the food industry.”
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‘Negative effects largely compensated’
Nevertheless, the bank thinks that the calculated negative effects can largely be compensated through new economic activities. ,, The jammed licensing process can possibly be pulled smoothly, provided that nature is given enough space to recover and the nitrogen emissions fall under the set standards. In this case there is room for new economic activities elsewhere in the economy. The released space on the energy network and supply of work can also be used elsewhere in the economy, which can limit damage. Finally, agricultural land – mainly grassland – is released for extensification of remaining livestock farms or for arable farming, ”says the sector expert.