In a new Russian mountain with which the Argentine economy has already used to market agents, in less than two weeks the fear for a dollar stampede became uncertainty from a floor too low. Neither one nor the other mood are capricious: as well as the reserves of the Central Bank They had a drain of US $ 2 billion in a little more than a month, the lifeguard with which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported the flexibility of the exchange rate changed the sign to net reserves (they were calculated at US $ -5,500 million before April 11) and deflated the expectations of a exchange correction.
The deadlines. What began with a 10% depreciation in the official exchange rate, was diluted up to 5% in the second week of the “liberation.” The gap also reached its minimum level since the old custom control custom in September 2019 was resumed: only 5%.
Is a new “abnormality” coming? Flexibility in the exchange market does not mean the disappearance of all types of restriction. Perhaps for some market segment (the retailer) with more visibility, but they continue to exist for others, such as the repatriation of profits or their stock of accumulated debts. The economist Carlos MelconiaN argues that the change in expectations was not for the “phase 3” of the economic program but for the “flying” that implied the agreement with the IMF and that the final result of the process will have to do with the variables that make it sustainable, as a sufficient fiscal surplus. Marina Dal Poggettodirector of the consultant Eco Goemphasizes that “we are again it between a narrative that cancels dissent and small print of what the government signed with the IMF to enable the disbursement, in the middle of the electoral race” and believes that the government should take advantage of to buy dollars and not force the exchange backwardness. “On the one hand, you must approach the fulfillment of the goals with the IMF in a context where, for the moment, the dollar credit remains forbidden. In addition, in the second half of the year, seasonality does not help, and the electoral process can put noise ”, warns.
In his latest report, the consultant Invecq He points out that the economic program shows solid signals in fiscal and recovery front, but also that, despite this, a turbulence scenario motivated by the difficulty of the difficulty of the difficulty of the Central Bank To accumulate reservations. In this regard, it emphasizes that, unlike what happened during the macrista government epilogue, public finances are balanced, there is a sector that will contribute more and more dollars regardless of the level of the real exchange rate (energy and mining) and that popular support to the government is higher than at the end of 2018. “On the fiscal level, the objective of primary surplus was reviewed upwards, going from 1.3% to 1.6% of GDP, which is equivalent to an additional fiscal effort of approximately US $ 2,000 million compared to the original goal”anticipates.
The unknowns. The main commitment is that in the quarter of “fat cows” exporters liquidate without waiting for a hypothetical jump in the exchange rate. For the economist Federico Pablo VacalebreProfessor of the UCEMAperhaps something is liquidated by a matter of financial necessity of a producer, But the numbers are not very encouraging, I include waiting for the threat of the government not to extend the removal of retentions and for a seasonal issue the dollar tends to go to the band’s roof. Roman Danteprofessor and researcher at School of Agribusiness of the Universidad Australthe “blend” remained made a 5%dollar decline, but for now the soybeans managed to stay and the corn rises. “Anyway, the producer hoped to receive more weights for his soy, and this is not happening. In the case of corn, instead, prices even rise in dollars”details.
For its part, María Castiglionidirector of C&T Economic Advisors It indicates that in the last month and a half the alkylation of exports had been slowed down and the imports with the noise generated by the discussion around an eventual modification of the exchange regime. In addition, since the Government has no deficit, it does not need an income of dollars to cover that red so it can remove pressure from that market and if it supports the primary surplus, “It will be an absorption factor of weights and demand for dollars, which can even help the exchange rate not appreciate so much”he explains.
Can this new “balance” be durable in the medium term? It is clear that the effect of relative exchange stability is a goal of the entire program in the electoral year. The eventual inflationary rebound that should be verified in April and May was limited by the bearish trajectory of the dollar and the disinfle of expectations. In this regard, Vacalebre questions that it is enough during the first steps of the program. “I observe that the government is acting in a very pragmatic way. It is one more step within a very strong stabilization process of the economy, in this case linked to the change market and the health of the balance of the Central Bank,” complete.
The horizon. The economist Jorge Colinaof IDESA He maintains that the observed trajectory of the official exchange rate that tends to the floor of the exchange band ($ 1,000) instead of the ceiling ($ 1,400), from the point of view of the objective of minimizing the inflationary impact is good news. But, from the dimension of national production, competitiveness problems intensify, that is, the difficulties they face to export and compete with imported products persist. “On the one hand, business entities ask to lower tax pressure to improve competitiveness. On the other, the government states that the space to lower taxes without compromising fiscal balance is very limited: irreconcilable positions in the short term”it limits. For example, according to data from the Ministry of Economy during 2024, at the national level, the check tax raised 1.6% of GDP and export rights 1.0% of GDP. At the provincial level, the Gross Income Tax raised 4.2% of GDP and the 0.4% stamps tax. At the municipal level, the industry and commerce rate, 0.8% of GDP. “This implies almost 30% of the total resources available to the public sector; There are no possibilities to eliminate or reduce these distortive taxes without falling back into fiscal deficit ”concludes.
Apparently, it is a bit more complex than removing obstacles, stocks and controls if you aspire to enter a virtuous circle of economic growth.
