The answer from Minister Eelco Heinen (Finance, VVD) to the unrest in the world is in one sound word “budget discipline”. The war in Ukraine, the trade war for rates and high inflation also affect the Netherlands, is in its spring memorandum published on Friday. It requires “trend -based budgeting”, a Dutch tradition to protect the economy. Building buffers when things are going well, publishing to help citizens if things are less.
With that approach, VVD minister Heinen comes as the winner from the stiff negotiations on the adjustment of the National Budget. Coalition parties NSC, BBB and PVV saw room for more expenses to be able to realize their wishes and ambitions. No, no budget rules are broken and no debts, according to Heinen.
But what does this neat spring memorandum say about all policy ambitions of the right -wing cabinet? The coalition itself always said: we solve all the problems in the Spring Memorandum. For example, the tension towards this budget was increasingly built up: in the country where we were waiting for solutions, in politics The Hague where a cabinet trap seemed possible.
It has not become a visionary budget with substantial investments for strengthening defense, climate change and the housing shortage, the documents show. It is primarily a compromise, with the wishes of coalition parties and some measures for purchasing power. Small solutions for acute problems, not for the big problems of our time.
“What strikes me: ostrich politics on the big posts,” says Sandra Phlips, chief economist at ABN AMRO. “The government should help people to become financially resilient in difficult times with changing geopolitical relationships and the energy transition that awaits us,” she says. But she doesn’t see that in the plans.
“This coalition adjusts ad hoc on many fronts,” says Barbara Baarsma, professor of economics at the University of Amsterdam and chief economist at Accountant PWC. “Everywhere they are looking for space to be able to mean something to the wallet of the voter in the short term.” But there is no strategy to create room for economic growth. For example, there is no financial cover for tackling nitrogen, Baarsma sees. It has been pushed forward towards Prinsjesdag, because a ministerial committee is working on it.
The controversial VAT increase on media, culture and sport of 1.3 billion euros has been reversed by reducing income tax. A promise to opposition parties. Otherwise they threatened to block the Coalition’s Coalition legislative proposals in the Senate, where the coalition has no majority.
The coalition also allocates extra money for municipalities and youth care. Here it was the Association of Dutch Municipalities (VNG) that threatened to go to court, if the government gave no money for the performance of government tasks. “A low point in the mutual relationships,” the VNG called that. In three years, municipalities will now receive a total of around 3 billion euros.
Asylum reception and rent allowance
Another acute problem was the asylum budget of Minister Marjolein Faber (PVV). The cabinet wants fewer asylum seekers, and therefore thinks it needs less money for asylum. But that policy appears to be difficult in practice, and Faber needed an additional 900 million euros this year for, among other things, reception. The coalition also had to free up money for that.
A purchasing power measure for the short term is the ‘shopping bonus’. This is about a one -off increase in the housing allowance in 2026 by one billion euros. In this way tenants have more money left to live on. In addition, the social rents will be frozen in 2025 and 2026 – and that provides the cabinet with some creative accounting itself a ‘bonus’. No rent increase also means less housing allowance. Structurally, the cabinet has to spend 492 million euros less.
For the long term, the spring memorandum often lacks real choices. Freezing the rents, for example, is nice for tenants, but not for home seekers. Two years without rent increase, housing associations saves 47.5 billion euros in income until 2030, says the umbrella association Aedes. That means that 170,000 homes cannot be built, or 1.4 million homes less more sustainable, says Aedes. Chairman Liesbeth Spies, himself former Minister of the Interior (CDA), calls it “astonishing” and “populist.” The earlier building agreements at the housing summit in December of the cabinet are ‘a farce’.
The chairman of the General Education Union (AOB), Thijs Roovers is also furious. From 2028, the cabinet is scraping a scheme for vulnerable students. “This will cost society much more than yield in the future,” he says in a response. It is bitter for education – just like housing, an investment for the long term. On the education budget of this year, half a billion euros in cutbacks had already been booked, which will increase to 1.2 billion euros in 2028. Now there is another cut.
The climate component is also only briefly reflected in the Spring Memorandum. The outline agreement and government program state that coalition and cabinet adhere to the existing climate agreements. But during the negotiations about the Spring Memorandum, the coalition parties brought 600 million euros from the Climate Fund to reduce the energy tax. It shows: climate has no priority for The Hague.
Strengthening Defense should have that if you listen to all the concerns of KAB Inet and Coalition about the Russian threat. “We invest more than 1.1 billion euros in Defense and Security,” said VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz last Wednesday.
But the money that this cabinet takes off for the Ministry of Defense only rises to 1.1 billion euros in 2029. 400 million euros would already go to the armed forces, to continue to meet the NATO standard of 2 percent of GDP with a growing economy over the years. With the extra money, the defense expenditure increases to 2.09 percent of GDP; Not nearly the 3.5 percent that Yesilgöz himself aspires.
Lelylin
The Rutte IV cabinet had reserved more than 3 billion euros to start the Lelylijn, a rail connection between Lelystad and Groningen. The money for the Lelylijn is now only largely used for another intended railway line, the Lower Saxony Line between Enschede and Groningen, plus three other infrastructure projects in the north. “How unreliable can you be as politics. Really outrageous,” writes the mayor of Heerenveen Avine Fokkens-Keller (VVD) on X. BBB emphasizes that the Lelylijn has not yet been deleted; Money must now be found in another road. If the line comes, it will take longer for years.
In political The Hague there were critical reactions from the opposition. “The Netherlands was shown a good news show of the coalition parties last week,” responded party leader Frans Timmermans of GroenLinks/PvdA to X. “With grit, the cabinet tries to buy the great dissatisfaction in the country.” Chairman of the party Rob Jetten of D66 called the spring memorandum “a missed opportunity” while the Netherlands would “crave big breakthroughs.”
What does Minister of Finance Heinen think that the real choices for the long term have been postponed by this coalition? “We do it step by step,” he says a few hours on Friday afternoon after the Spring Memorandum has been published, if he answers questions from the press. “This is how we solve all problems.”