Milan hunting the mini doblete, Inter runs for the Triplete

Fourth of the seasonal derby and another will be played, because we are talking about the first leg of the Italian Cup semifinals. Five Milan-Inter in the season are an anomaly, a duty to pay, to use the word of the moment. AC Milan has everything to lose because the Italian Cup is the last goal that remained to Sergio Conceiçao and its outburst orchestra. The cup is worth less than the qualification for the Champions League, now blended, but, combined with the Italian Super Cup won in Arabia, it would make sense of a year that has no sense, to paraphrase Vasco Rossi, an Inter singer. It would be a doblete, a brace in mini format, where, for Inter, the Italian Cup is essential to duplicate the Triplete of 2010, but, if it went wrong in the double round against Milan, the Scudetto would remain, with high possibilities of success, and the Champions League, with some possibilities of victory. Simone Inzaghi is a specialist from the Italian Cup, not even 50 years old he won three, one with Lazio and two with Inter. Massimiliano Allegri, branch record holder with five Italian cups, is not far away. Conceiçao, however, beat Inzaghi in January in Riad, in the Italian Super Cup final in Arabia, and it is from here that you have to start to understand where it will parry the double April derby.

Strangeness

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In the season of the great confusion, Milan won two derby and drew another against the “battleship Inter”, as per the Contiana label. In September, in the championship, 2-1 success, with Paulo Fonseca coach and with high pressures on the construction from the bottom of Inter as a keystone. In January with Sergio Conceiçao fresh from appointment, in the Super Cup, the Milan Gran Recipa, from 0-2 to 3-2. Two factors: the relaxation of the interior of two goals and the insertion of the Leao. In Arabia, as on other occasions, the Portuguese got up from the bench and split the game. The exclusions motivate Leao, which however tonight is announced among the owners. Sunday Conceiçao had cut him out of the eleven against Napoli, to make him enter the 2-0 and get an almost draw. The third derby 2024-25 was 1-1 of February, the return to the championship, with Inter under a goal until 93 ‘. If at the last moment De Vrij had not marked the 1-1, today we would talk about three consecutive hits of Milan. That was the derby of the Milan resistance, a game in which Conceiçao’s football sublimated: hard struggle, extreme defensive phase and robust dose of luck given the three Inter wood woods.

Today’s scenario

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Tonight we expect a game similar to February 1-1. AC Milan cannot afford to face Inter open -face, without worrying about side effects. Better: Milan would have men to try and succeed, but lacks the game, of a common and clear idea. Conceiçao’s Milan is an emotional team, lives on ups and downs, it emerges when it is put to the grip. On the other hand, Inter are cold, rational and structured, knows how to take what he wants. The risk of Inter is the excess of security, Milan’s strength is the reaction ability. In this respect, the Riad derby was perfect: Inter ahead 2-0, convinced that he won; AC Milan wounded and reactive, comeback and overtaking, 3-2.

The weight of the attacks

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Let’s take the statistics of the current Serie A as a reference, few games have been played in the cup and the figures would not be significant. In the championship, Inter scored 67 goals and Milan 45: 22 goals of difference in 30 days, a deep furrow. The algorithm, however, says more. As for Expected-Goals, the expected or alleged goals, Inter and Milan are not so far away: Inzaghi is first with 1.94 of XG per game, Milan according to Atalanta with 1.71. These numbers explain to us how Milan have an offensive potential almost at Inter height. That this possibility of scoring has remained more theoretical than practical is another matter. In the expelled economy of a first leg and return, however, it can have a weight, considering that the Inter will have three of its five attackers tonight. Thuram and Correa Owner, Arnautovic on the bench, with Lautaro and taremi outside for injuries. AC Milan will have Leao and Pulisic, and Conceiçao must decide who will be the center forward between Gimenez and Abraham, with Jovic fresh from goals to Napoli ready to enter. Conceiçao will draw the best possible training. Inzaghi, between injuries and dosage of forces, will vary several players. Next week Inter in Munich will have the first leg of the Champions League quarters against Bayern. The turnover could affect, but Inter rotations are the same at Milan height. Sergio Conceiçao has everything to lose, but if Simone Inzaghi came out of the Italian Cup at the hands of Milan, after leaving the Super Cup to Milan himself, a crack would open on the wall of his season, so far notable.