The American sanctions affect the two largest Russian oil groups, Lukoil and Rosneft, and more than thirty affiliated companies. These are the first new, direct punitive measures of the second Trump administration. It is expected that these actions will further hit Russia’s already ailing economy.

Six months

The change of course – sanctions instead of missiles – is motivated by practical reasons, according to President Donald Trump. “It would take at least six months to a year to train them (the Ukrainians),” he said on Wednesday about the Tomahawk missiles in the Oval Office, where NATO chief Mark Rutte was visiting. According to the Republican, the only alternative to quickly put pressure would have been to shoot the missiles themselves. “We don’t do that,” Trump said. After all, it would directly involve the US in the war.

Trump himself had suggested earlier this month that he would give Tomahawks to Kiev, which could hit targets deep inside Russia. Russian leader Vladimir Putin then immediately took action and contacted the White House by telephone. That conversation revived hopes for a breakthrough.

The US president even announced a summit with Putin in Hungary, without giving an exact date. He soon came back to that. On Wednesday, Trump reiterated that he has no plans to sit down with his Russian counterpart, after it became clear earlier in the week that Moscow is not willing to move enough. The new sanctions should change that.

The Americans have been trying for months to find an opening to stop the bloody war. It serves no national security interests for Washington.

Bottleneck in disputed area of ​​Donbas

A sticking point is that Russia continues to lay claim to the entire Donbas, a disputed area of ​​which almost a quarter is now still in Ukrainian hands. Kiev, in turn, was also unwilling to give up its claims to the entire region.

This was a major theme in the clash between Trump and Zelensky at the White House last week. The Americans are pushing for a deal in which the current ceasefire borders serve as a starting point for a peace agreement. Zelensky has now indicated that he is prepared to do so.

There are more pain points. Kiev is committed to a ceasefire with a freeze on the current ceasefire lines, after which a peace agreement should follow. Part of this includes Western security guarantees, including the stationing of troops from NATO member states. The US has also pledged support. Russia wants to take the opposite route and continue fighting until a final agreement is reached. Moscow also opposes the arrival of Western troops, even if it is on the Ukrainian side.

ttn-2