As at the 2018 World Cup, Germany started the tournament in Qatar with a defeat. After the next game it could be over for the DFB team – the possible scenarios.
The fact that Spain is the next German opponent at the World Cup on Sunday (November 27th, 2022) could be a blessing or a curse. On the one hand, the southern Europeans showed an impressive performance against Costa Rica (7-0) shortly after the botched DFB start (1: 2 against Japan), on the other hand, the Spanish style of play, which focuses on ball possession and attacking, can clearly accommodate Hansi Flick’s team compared to the deep Japanese.
As far as the possible views into the crystal ball. However, there is already an enormously important fact about the second German group game: the end is imminent. When is that the case? Here are the possible scenarios.
Germany is out if…
… Spain defeats the DFB team and Japan gets at least one point against Costa Rica. Germany would then still have zero points, the two opponents could no longer be caught with four or six points.
Germany can only theoretically hope if …
… also the second group game is lost and Costa Rica can defeat the Japanese. Then Germany would be through with a final win against Costa Rica if Japan also loses against Spain. But only if the DFB team – which would then have three points like the other two teams – also has the better goal difference.
… Germany gets just one point against Spain and Japan wins. The Asians would then be uncatchable with six points and Spain could only be intercepted with the better goal difference. So it would have to be a smashing victory against Costa Rica with a simultaneous defeat of the Iberians against Japan.
… Germany and Japan draw. Then Japan and Spain should not share the points on the third matchday. If there were a winner in this duel, the DFB team could still intercept a nation on goal difference if they beat Costa Rica.
Germany has a good chance if …
… the Flick-Elf scores against Spain and Japan loses. In this case, the DFB team would have progress in their own hands. Because Spain and Japan meet on the last day of the game, a (big) win against Costa Rica would probably be enough for Germany. Because both teams could not have more than four points, goal difference could decide in the end – unless Spain beat Japan, in which case Germany are four points ahead.
… there is a win against Spain. Another win against Costa Rica would have six points for Germany and a chance of progress. If Germany wins both games, the team will surely finish the group stage with a positive goal difference – and that is worth a lot in the current format where goal difference comes before the direct comparison.