In the league, three teams have the opportunity to advance to the semi-finals today.
The most interesting game of the day
Today is the evening of three matches that may already be decisive for the semi-final teams in the league.
In Oulu, Kärpät and Ilves will continue their match that was interrupted yesterday. There Ilves would go on with the victory. In Kouvola, KooKoo has the opportunity to drop Jukurit as a real giant scarecrow, and in Helsinki, HIFK has its back against the wall with TPS.
Of the possible solutions today, the focus will be on the encounter between HIFK and TPS.
The series of TPS and HIFK can be considered the strangest of the semi-finals. The nature of the matches and the playing power of the teams have varied infrequently between the matches in the series.
The most illustrative example of a gambling dominance toss can be found in the second and third encounters. In the second match in Helsinki, HIFK won the shots 67–29 and the expected 3.5–1.0 (also in the extra 4–3 of the match itself), but a couple of days later in Turku, the Palloseura took the shots 86–47 and the expected 3.5–2.5 (HIFK won however, in the sequel to the game 4–3).
There has also been a huge variation in the nature of the game and the number of goals in this series, with 2-0 and 2-1 at the end of the two least games and three others holding as many as 24 goals in regular time. The variances are great in every way.
Although the nature of the matches and the events of the match have fluctuated sharply, one common denominator for the current situation in the series (TPS leads 3–2) can still be found and that is HIFK’s fumbling defensive and goalkeeping game.
Directly from the statistics it can be read that the goalkeeper playing HIFK Niilo Halonen is a jumbo in the spring playoff statistics in terms of goalkeeper defeat rates – and still Andrei Karejeviin. Halonen’s combat percentage in the playoffs is only 87.72% (and the average number of goals scored 3.17). The hardest readings are 90.28% and 2.68 / game.
Although it is not worth staring too much at defensive percentages in such short shots, the number of easy goals scored by HIFK is certainly too high if the team likes to continue with this pair.
The fault is by no means in Halose alone, but the defensive play of the entire HIFK team has been marked by uncertainty. Probably the biggest reason for this can be found in the numerous absences and simply that the structure of the defense game has simply not been able to settle in place.
Anyway, the playing cohesion of the whole team is much lower than the equivalent of the Ball Club, for example. Of course, a lot would be saved from Halonen’s dreams, but at least no such thing has been seen yet.
The compositions of the evening are worth noting Johan Motinin returning to HIFK’s defense. When also the first matches missed Rony Ahonen is involved, is no longer on the missing list of important men when it comes to defense Jordan Schmaltz and a long-term patient Joonas Lyytinen. First goalkeeper Michael Garteigia can no longer replace at this stage.
In terms of offensive chains, it seems good for HIFK to start this match with the fact that only one power point in the playoffs Miikka Salomäki has been moved from number one to Nelonen. Also Teemu Turunen has rehabilitated to the point of assembly.
TPS will continue with the same lineup and chains after playing for a long time. Of course, it is important to calculate the Plus for Turku residents.
In betting on the HIFK – TPS match, Veikkaus has almost put the teams on an equal footing. In principle, with these odds, HIFK would have to taste clearly more than TPS when betting on the winner, so a small hint of HIFK’s final odds of 1.75.
The number of paint coefficients is slightly weighted. Due to HIFK’s defensive problems, I do not dare to take a betting stance in this direction in the direction of insignificance, even though, in principle, the current odds should do so.
HIFK-TPS starts at 6:30 p.m.
The best bet of the day
The best long draw search on Tuesday can be found at a slightly surprising address, i.e. KooKoo – the richness of the Jukurit match – if now the search for more than 4.0 goals can even be considered an actual richness search.
The series has so far been one of the goalkeepers (Nick MalikKooKoo and Oskari Salminen, Jukurit) screen. The teams have created a total of a whopping 29 hits in their five matches, but only 21 goals have been scored.
Today, however, there will be turbulence for the goalkeeping department as Jukurit rests with Salmi and plays with the Mikkeli goal Karolus Kaarlehto.
The matches have been quite rich, fast-paced and offensive in nature. Small things tend to accumulate in matches of this nature and I consider the number of goals to be a potential target for cumulation. Already in the previous match (KooKoo won the away team 5–1) the rebound effect was seen.
If and when the nature of the matches remains roughly the same, then this effect may well recur. In terms of betting, Veikkaus is very strong in its goals for the number of goals and the number of goal lines is very low. For myself, this is especially true of the 1.64 multiplier promised over 4.0 goals.
In a 2-1 lead for either team, the goalkeeper is likely to be taken off in time, which adds “Pushin“(own back) probability, and especially in either team’s 3-1 lead, the probability of an extra goal by taking a risk is now, I think, high.
KooKoo – Jukurit will also start at 6.30 pm.
Games of the day: KooKoo – Jukurit, over 4.0 goals (odds 1.64).
The total balance of the year’s games for the year: 22/35/115%
Every day, Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Nutrition section.