The turbulence occur when an airplane flies through colliding bodies of air and move at different speeds. And the most severe ones can make even the most experienced pilot nervous, making five minutes seem like an eternity.

Usually the result is nothing more than a bumpy ride, but in the worst case it can cause damage and injury. Turbulence is the leading cause of passenger lawsuits against airlines according to the US Federal Aviation Administration: costs US airlines up to $500 million a year for injuries, delays and damages.

And according to the American Center for Atmospheric Research, it is a phenomenon that could increase exponentially in the following years due to climate change. About 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence annually in the US, and about 5,500 suffer severe turbulence.

These numbers would be destined to grow. “There is a scale to measure the strength of turbulence,” Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Reading in the UK, told CNN. “There is a slight turbulence, which is a bit of tension against the seat belt, but the food service can continue, for example.”

“Then there is moderate turbulence, definite tension against the seat belts, anything that is not secured will come loose and walking will be difficult, and passengers are told to take their seats. The worst kind is severe turbulence: which can pin you in your seat and if you’re not wearing your seatbelt you’ll be thrown into the cabin.This is the type of turbulence that causes serious injuries and broken bones“.

This happened a few days ago to a Aerolineas Argentinas plane that was flying from Madrid to Buenos Aires and suffered severe turbulence when flying over northern Brazil, leaving twelve wounded: flight AR1133 who landed at the Ezeiza International Airport, from Barajas, was the victim of an air hole that generated “severe” turbulence, as indicated in the statement released by the local airline.

And now to another plane from Latam that suffered the detachment of the nose, the nose of the plane, after going through a strong storm. The company indicated that flight LA1325 (Santiago de Chile-Asunción) experienced severe weather conditions during its journey and made an emergency landing in the Paraguayan capital, although without problems, and that, both the passengers and the crew, did not suffer complications. But the turbulence caused scenes of panic among the passengers, and upon landing it was verified that his trunk was damaged.

Turbulence and accidents.

Williams believes that climate change is behind the increase in these events: he began studying the subject in 2013. “We did some computer simulations and we found that severe turbulence could double or triple in coming decades“, he predicts. The specialist highlights that this increase is linked to a type of turbulence called “clear air turbulence“, which is not related to any visual clues such as storms or clouds.

Unlike regular turbulence, it hits suddenly and is hard to avoid. According to the NTSB, between 2009 and 2018, the flight crew did not receive any warnings in approximately 28% of accidents related to turbulence. Williams’ analysis predicts that clear-air turbulence will increase significantly around the world for the period 2050-2080.

However, that doesn’t mean flying is any less safe. “Planes won’t start falling from the sky, because the planes are built to very high specifications and can withstand the worst turbulence you can expect to encounter, even in the future,” says Williams. However, the average duration of the turbulence will increase. “Normally, on a transatlantic flight, you can expect 10 minutes of turbulence. I think in a few decades this can increase to 20 minutes or half an hour”, he concludes,

by RN

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