Why the eyes – also from the West – are on Tianjin this weekend

XI Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi together at one diplomatic meeting: the top of the Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO), which takes place on Sunday and Monday in the Chinese city of Tianjin, will be closely monitored in Western capitals.

The SCO was founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as a political and economic partnership. In recent years the SCO has been expanded with India and Pakistan (2017), Iran (2023) and Belarus (2024). In addition to the leaders of SCO member states, delegations take part from partner countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Qatar, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Although the SCO in the West is sometimes described as the ‘anti-navo’, that is somewhat exaggerated: there are no mutual safety guarantees and the platform serves primarily as a consultative body. And it is precisely that sometimes runs a spoke between the members.

Because although the SCO is intended for regional agreements, according to critics, the organization has rarely succeeded in finding solutions for shared problems and differences. Although the Member States have joint interests, they do not always agree and do not share the same worldview. Arch enemies India and Pakistan even fought a short war earlier this year, and the secretariat in Beijing has difficulty with coordination and implementation of cooperation.

Counterbetment

This top offers the chance for the participating countries to make such disputes. The SCO could then form a decisive political and economic block, as a counterbalance to American dominance.

Because the top takes place against that background. Under pressure from American Grillen and the war in Ukraine, the geopolitical importance of the SCO is increasing. Heavyweights China, India and Russia are all affected by harsh American sanctions: for China and India there are high American import tariffs and punitive measures due to their support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. Russia itself has been under sanctions for years due to the same war.

“See the SCO as a non-western block. Anti-western or anti-American is a bit too strong,” says Ian Hall, who is researching Australian Griffith University into Asian international relations. What these non-Western leaders want to achieve together during the top is still unclear. “At the SCO it is always difficult to predict what the outcome will be,” says Hall.

What is there for three of the most important SCO countries in Tianjin at stake?

ChinaNot ‘confrontation -oriented’, such as the West

It is no coincidence that host country China has now worked out with the organization of the top. The meeting gives China the chance to show in a relatively subtle way that it is able to bring important world players together, regardless of what the White House thinks is. The SCO is important for building “a new kind of international relations,” said a Chinese government spokesperson last week.

What is special is that, apart from the traditional members of the SCO, this time also many Southeast Asian leaders sit down, such as Indonesian President Pabowo Subianta and the Prime Ministers of Vietnam and Malaysia. The region suffers a lot from the import duties that the US President Donald Trump has introduced. Although this top cannot do so much against that, the symbolism of a region that cites the mutual ties in China is strong. In that context, the agenda of the top has also been broadened by Beijing: in addition to the traditional focus on safety, economic cooperation and innovation are also on the program.

More than on the forum itself, the visiting leaders will hope for concrete agreements with President Xi Jinping during bilateral encounters in the margin of the top. The expectations are greatest around the meeting of XI with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Since a dragging border conflict that got out of hand in 2020, the diplomatic relationships between China and India were very tense. Lately things are going better, partly because of the shared necessity to become less dependent on the United States.

For China, the top also offers the opportunity to promote its own theories about the new world order. Such as China’s Global Security Initiative, that, such as an article in Chinese Volksdagblad This week explained, the emphasis placed on a holistic approach to safety in which the interests of the world as a whole are taken into account, “other than in the state-centric, confrontation-oriented Western approach.”

RussiaFavorable photo moments and economic interests

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“A token of unprecedented solidarity in an era of eroding international-economic relations,” described the Russian Dagblad Buncher Recently the SCO meeting. The Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China for no less than four days, where he will sit on the honorary grandstand for the commemoration of the Japanese surrender during the Second World War on Wednesday with his most important political friend and ally Xi Jinping-and together with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un-for the commemoration of the Japanese dedication during the Second World War.

Just two weeks after the American President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for him in Alaska, the SCO meeting for Putin is an excellent opportunity to show his enemies in the West that he can not only get Trump around his finger, but also has a substantial scare in the non-Western world. Putin does not have to fear all too critical questions about his unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine in Tianjin, although the Ukrainian government called on participating SCO countries to take a ‘clear position’ after the deadly Russian attack on Kyiv last Wednesday.

In addition to the chance of favorable photo moments, there are significant economic interests for Putin in China. While the West has been trying to insulate with sanctions for years, Russian trade with the SCO countries and partners has risen one and a half times between 2022 and 2024, to 343 billion euros, said the Russian commercial minister Anton Alichanov at the beginning of July.

During his visit to China, Putin has the opportunity to speak personally with both modes and XI about energy and military matters. This against the background of Trumps threats to further increase import tariffs, as a punishment for the purchasing of Russian oil. Putin also hopes to sell the important ‘Power of Siberia 2’ pipeline for Russia for Russia.

Moreover, China is one of Russia’s most important military pillars in the war against Ukraine, mainly due to the delivery of (sanctioned) technology for the Russian arms industry. It’s not for nothing that Putin comes to China with a “special gift,” Russian and Chinese media written on Friday: Russian aircraft engines.

IndiaRapprochement with China, but arguing with Pakistan

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When Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in China on Sunday, that is his first visit to the neighboring country in seven years. His presence in Tianjin marks the cautious rapprochement between China and India, which started last year and has accelerated under pressure from the presidency of the unpredictable Donald Trump.

With his visit, Premier Modi can clearly show that New Delhi maintains relationships with different world powers. During the top, Modi can look up both Putin and XI to make it clear that he is not cowing by Trump. In recent years, India, on the other hand, started working closer with the US, but it was nevertheless tackled hard: Washington doubled on Wednesday the import duties on Indian products to 50 percent, as a punishment for the procurement of oil from Russia.

Russia has traditionally been an important partner for India. However, Modi cannot afford to completely lose American friendship, so he should not be too flashy or hostile.

Such navigating should be a flask in the hand of the Indian prime minister. New Delhi’s foreign policy is basically based on an ‘unbound’, autonomous attitude. In recent years, India argued for a multipolar world order, in which it attributes an important role to itself. When India became a member of the SCO in 2017, it also wanted to try to limit China’s influence in the region.

Modi must take into account more opposing interests. Like with Pakistan, that joined the SCO at the same time. This year, the ongoing border conflict between the countries flared up. Their mutual rivalry is more often a brake on international connections.

The Indian solution for this diplomatic wirwar fits within the SCO approach: search for concrete shared interests. The fact that there is traditionally a lot of attention for the fight against terrorism in the SCO is extra good. It is expected that India will use the forum to put pressure on Pakistan-to support anti-Indian terror organizations. Earlier this year, India himself was faced with the rest of SCO, when it was a joint conviction of the Israeli attacks on fellow member state Iran refused to sign.

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