The Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk has so far been a European stock exchange miracle. However, individual factors could now throw shadows on the former success story.
• Success series seems over
• Bofa expects lower growth
• US drug authority FDA awakens hopes
The high -altitude flight of the Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk seems to be stalled. Since the launch of the Blockbuster medicament Wegovy in 2021, the company has been able to raise its sales forecasts several times and became the most valuable listed company in Europe-with a stock market value of $ 615 billion. However, new market data from the USA are raising doubts about the continuation of this success series.
As can be seen from a recent report by the Reuters news agency, the weekly Wegovy bonds have been stagnating since mid-February-despite an expansion of the US delivery quantities that Novo Nordisk had announced in February. Analysts refer to data from the market research company IQVIA that the competitor Zepbound by Eli Lilly Wegovy had recently overtaken significantly: 128,000 more zepbound recipes are said to have been issued in the week to April 11 alone.
Forecasting possible – analysts skeptical
For example, Novo Nordisk promised sales growth of 16 to 24 percent for constant exchange rates for 2025 – a view of the company that has already been cautious compared to the boom years before. But now voices are increasing, which even classify this goal as unrealistic.
According to Reuters, the Bank of America expects a reduction in the forecast to 14 to 22 percent – the weakest growth since Wegovy was introduced. Lukas Leu, portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management, is also skeptical: “I am very careful with Novo. I see the possibility of reducing the forecast,” says Reuters in this context.
Since December 2023, Novo Nordisk has lost around $ 230 billion in stock market value – a decrease of 45 percent. Causes could be the disappointment with the recent study data on the successor “Cagrisema and the increasing competitive pressure by Eli Lilly.
FDA reaches through – hope for the recovery of market shares
A clear view could offer an intervention by the US drug authority FDA: This has arranged that US pharmacies from May 22 may no longer be allowed to produce replica versions of Wegovy. Novo probably assumes that around 30 percent of the Semaglutid volume – the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic – from so -called compounding pharmacies.
But not all analysts believe that Novo can fully recapture this volume. According to Reuters, Berenberg analyst Kerry Holford shows herself: “I think part of this demand will be lost due to the affordability and some will switch to Zepbound”.
How realistic the worries are should be shown in a few weeks. On May 7, Novo Nordisk will publish his figures for the first quarter. Analysts and investors should then look forward to new data for prescriptions, stocks and possible corrections of the growth forecasts.
Editor finance.net
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