Frankfurt (dpa -AfX) – Even in the new week, the action on the German stock market should be dominated by the reporting season. On August 1st, the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for a customs cleaning of the European Union with the United States is also getting closer. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve Fed will now decide on interest. Not least with a view to upcoming economic data such as the US work market report, a summer hole on the stock exchange is no trace.
The DAX recently remained within reach of its record high two weeks ago, but advances on the chart hurdle had always failed at 24,500 points. From the perspective of capital market strategist Jürgen Molnar from the Broker Robomarkets, the increasing number of failure is not a good sign for the coming days and weeks. The customs dispute continues to be like a sword of Damocles that will be over at least until next Friday over investors.
According to the United States’ trade agreement with Japan, confidence increased that the EU could also agree with Trump on a customs rate of 15 percent instead of the threatened 30 percent. “The rather positive reaction of the stock exchanges can only be explained with the hope of soon,” commented analyst Thomas Altmann from QC Partners. Because even an inch of 15 percent would hit many export -oriented companies hard, which leaves traces of export quantities and gains. Market observer Andreas Lipkow also sees the EU in a worse negotiating position than the United States.
The quarterly figures of Volkswagen (Volkswagen (VW) VZ) and SAP (SAP SE) have already shown that the tariffs and the associated uncertainties are already a burden on German companies. From Wednesday, among others, Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz Group (ex Daimler)) and BMW, as well as Adidas, Airbus (Airbus SE) and Heidelberg Materials will submit the next DAX companies.
In addition, the reporting season in the USA continues with tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta (Meta Platforms (ex Facebook)), Apple and Amazon. The technology -based Nasdaq 100 recently continued his record hunting. Jochen Stanzl from the CMC Markets Handelshaus CMC Markets found that the investigation on Wall Street was turned up to the stop. “Some sentiment indicators attest to the Americans that they have become extremely greedy and extremely optimistic.” Daring speculations regarded Stanzl as a dangerous signal that could indicate an impending cooling of the courses on the overall market.
A looser Monetary policy is not to be expected as an additional spa driver. In view of a robust economy and a solid labor market in the United States, the experts from the Large Bank Ing do not expect one Interest rate the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday – although Trump had repeatedly pushed for falling interest. However, the FED will probably start the preparatory work for an interest step that may come in December, added the ING experts.
Ulf Krauss from Landesbank Hessen-Thuringia wrote the US Federal Reserve that is upcoming on Friday. Fed boss Jerome Powell had also warned more often in the past that new and higher tariffs could heat inflation on imports in the USA. On Wednesday, an initial estimate of the gross domestic product showed in the second quarter of how Trump’s customs policy affected the economic growth. Krauss assumes a clear plus, while for Germany and the Euro zone a decline in economic output.
In Europe, chief economist Edgar Walk from Metzler Asset Management also expects a slight damper after strong growth at the start of the year. Nevertheless, the economic robustness of the euro zone is remarkable. Neither labor market nor inflation are a problem. Fresh consumer price data on Friday should show that inflation has landed on the ECB’s inflation goal of 2 percent. “Overall, there is a risk of too low inflation in the euro zone,” said Walk. Therefore, in September he expects another interest rate reduction in the ECB./NiW/jsl/he
— from Nicklas Wolf, dpa-Afx —