These warning words from army chief Valeri Zaluzhny are the clearest yet from the Ukrainian military summit that a quick end to the war is not in sight. It also shows that the military does not believe that negotiations with Moscow will lead to anything. “There is every reason to believe that the war will not end sometime in 2022,” Lieutenant General Zaluzhny said in an op-ed.
Zaluzhny is thus dampening hopes among Ukrainians and in the West that the army’s counter-attacks in the south and east will ensure a breakthrough this year. The Ukrainians want to deal a serious blow to the Russians by taking the southern city of Kherson. This week they also suddenly counterattacked in the eastern city of Kharkiv. This new operation would go remarkably well, with significant Ukrainian territorial gains. At the same time, Kyiv has been able to hold up the Russian offensive in the Donbas for weeks.
According to Zaluzhny, however, a military breakthrough will not be possible until 2023. According to him, the condition is that the army will be considerably strengthened in the coming months, both with extra soldiers and with billions of dollars in new, modern Western weapons, in order to be able to go on the offensive. “The only way to radically change the strategic situation is for the Ukrainian military to launch several consecutive, and ideally simultaneous, counter-attacks by 2023,” the army chief said.
New high-tech rocket
According to him, it is crucial that the Ukrainian army will have access to new high-tech missiles with which the Russians can be bombarded from hundreds of kilometers away. Only then, according to him, will it be possible to pay the Russian army, which has been deploying these types of missiles for months, with the same coin.
Zaluzhny specifically mentions the Atacms, an American missile that has been on the wish list of the Ukrainians for months. This GPS-guided missile can target Russian units up to 300 kilometers away. Zaluzhny’s words are once again increasing the pressure on the United States, which has so far refused to deliver this missile. The Biden administration is concerned that the Ukrainian army will also use the Atacms (Army Tactical Missile System) to attack Russian territory.
As an alternative, Washington decided to send missiles with a range of 70 kilometers to the battlefield in the summer. These are fired with the Himars launch system. In the short time that the 16 Himars batteries have been active, they have already brought a remarkable turn in the war. Ukrainian artillery has succeeded in destroying hundreds of key targets behind the Russian frontline, from ammunition and petrol depots to command centers.
Beat Russians
The advanced Atacms missile, also fired with the Himars launch system, will further trouble the Russian invasion army. With this missile, all Russian soldiers, from Mariupol in the south to Kharkiv in the east, can be attacked from a safe distance by the Ukrainian artillerymen. The Russians in Crimea, home of the Black Sea fleet, must also fear the high-tech missile.
“If Ukraine manages to get the right weapons, the operational and strategic prospects for 2023 will look completely different,” Zaluzhny argues. “The mere threat of the Ukrainian military using appropriately ranged means of destruction will force Russia to reconsider the nature, course and outcome of the confrontation.” The army chief even thinks that Ukraine will be able to defeat the Russians.
The US has not yet indicated whether it is willing to supply the Atacms missile. However, the Pentagon has so far praised the success with which the Ukrainian military has deployed the Himars missile. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new $675 million military aid package to Ukraine on Thursday. The US has now delivered nearly $14 billion to Kyiv. The US held talks with allies in Germany on Thursday about how to support the Ukrainian military in the long term.