Like a great caterpillar of pure military destruction marching towards Kiev. A Russian army column tens of kilometers long is approaching the Ukrainian capital, according to shocking satellite aerial images leaked by the United States on Tuesday, March 1. According to the photos, taken by the Maxar satellite, it is 64 kilometers long and comes from Belarusian territory. You can see, among others, trucks with armored artillery east of Antonov airport, on the outskirts of Kiev. But also armored vehicles, tanks or towed artillery.
Experts see it as a logical achievement of Vladimir Putin’s strategic shift. Now intends to surround the capital and martyr it with bombardments, to force Volodimir Zelensky to capitulate; to sit at the negotiating table so surrounded by artillery, and with so many military and civilian casualties on the table that he has to accept the invader’s conditions. This is what is known in military strategic thought as “cost imposition”.
“It is the usual Russian strategy to besiege a city. The Army of him is very good at artillery. They are going to pocket the capital and blow it up with rockets and artillery & rdquor ;, he explains to The Newspaper of Spain Guillem Colom, expert in Strategy, Defense and Military Studies of the Pablo de Olavide University and co-director of the thinktank of Thiber.
Failure of Putin’s fast strategy
And all because Vladimir Putin’s first attempt to subdue Ukraine, with a quick coup and low cost in human lives, has not worked. That is why a new stage has been entered. “The option of surrounding cities, especially Kiev, has been put in place as a logical consequence of the failure of the helicopter operation at Gostomel [asalto a un aeródromo en las afueras de la ciudad] and the assaults launched in cities such as Kharkov or Sumy & rdquor ;, explains Christian Villanueva, former military officer and director of Revista Ejércitos.
22/ 1:10 PM| The Ukrainian air defense unit near Mariupol was destroyed as a result of a series of missile hits. pic.twitter.com/Flk0B6Gqe8
— The Political Room (@Political_Room) February 24, 2022
The analyst does not see anything extraordinary in the long military column known today. It was what was seen in the operation Desert Storm or in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, remember. “In the first 24-48 hours, Vladimir Putin tried to make a quick coup to decapitate the Ukrainian government and take control of the two main cities, Kharkov and Kiev. Surprise attacks. But it didn’t work for him & rdquor ;, she explains. “Now he has moved on to the cost-imposition strategy, a more traditional war in which he will resort to artillery and aerial bombardment until surrender & rdquor ;. Colom echoes the same idea: “It is like when the Russian Army tried to take over the Afghan Parliament with an airborne attack”.
Putin will thus accumulate more and more heavy military means, artillery and armored units, to cause damage. If Ukraine does not agree to negotiate, “they will continue to increase the bet & rdquor ;. What he does not foresee is that they take over the city street by street. “Now the strategy will be more conservative, they will not go for the center of the city, because an urban combat in such a big city is hell & rdquor ;.
Encirclement and artillery at will
In the next few hours or days, it is to be hoped thate the Russian Army is conquering all the towns near Kiev, cutting the lines of communication, such as roads or railways; and taking infrastructures such as electricity plants, or telecommunications or water nodes, Villanueva points out. The city would be isolated. And that includes the impossibility of the arrival of the military material that the European Union wants to send. This should come from other areas. Perhaps it would serve for a counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops from Odessa, in the south of the country.
Can Kiev hold out? It’s a tough forecast. What seems clear is that with this military column, Moscow is going to provide everything necessary to a fence that could be long. “You have to take armored vehicles, combat cars, ammunition, fresh men to the battlefield, tank trucks, armored vehicles, food & rdquor ;, Villanueva points out.
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Putin has not yet brought into the country all the forces it had deployed on the border. He still has tens of thousands of soldiers available. And an army of up to 900,000 active and another two million in reserves.
The initial lightning operation had as its “center of gravity & rdquor; your president, Volodymyr Zelensky. An operation without great risks for the Russian Army. Failing, the current situation has been reached. “It is about engulfing and suffocating the city. Saving the distances, is what happened in Stalingrad, he pocketed the German forces in the city. The battle tanks will make a break to enter, but they will not enter the city, it would be crazy & rdquor ;, explains Colom. They will start firing artillery at will, from 15 kilometers or more away. The question is what cost in human lives Zelensky can be willing to accept before giving up.